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> that does not mean that there arn't giant shocking leaps forward coming from slightly different directions. Nor does it mean that there are! We've gotten int
by demosthanos 2y ago
> that does not mean that there arn't giant shocking leaps forward coming from slightly different directions.
Nor does it mean that there are! We've gotten into this habit of assuming that we're owed giant shocking leaps forward every year or so, and this wave of AI startups raised money accordingly, but that's never how any innovation has worked. We've always followed the same pattern: there's a breakthrough which causes a major shift in what's possible, followed by a few years of rapid growth as engineers pick up where the scientists left off, followed by a plateau while we all get used to the new normal.
We ought to be expecting a plateau, but Sam Altman and company have done their work well and have convinced many of us that this time it's different. This time it's the singularity, and we're going to see exponential growth from here on out. People want to believe it, so they do, and Altman is milking that belief for all it's worth.
But make no mistake: Altman has been telegraphing that he's eyeing the exit, and you don't eye the exit when you own a company that's set to continue exponentially increasing in value.
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- lcnPylGDnU4H9OF 2y ago> Altman has been telegraphing that he's eyeing the exit Can you think of any specific examples? Not trying to express disbelief, just curious given that this is obviously not what he's intending to communicate so it would be interesting to examine what seemed to communicate it.
- tim333 2y agoYeah, listening to him last week he seemed very unlike that https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXCBz_8hM9w&t=2324s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXCBz_8hM9w&t=2324s