2 ms·
Not the parent, but in prediction markets such as Metaculus[0] and Manifold[1] the median prediction is of AGI within 5 years. [0] https://www.metaculus.com/qu
by falcor84 2y ago
Not the parent, but in prediction markets such as Metaculus[0] and Manifold[1] the median prediction is of AGI within 5 years.
[0] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-...
[1] https://manifold.markets/ai https://manifold.markets/ai
- JohnMakin 2y agoPrediction markets are evidence of nothing but what people believe is true, not what is true.
- falcor84 2y agoOh, that was my intent, to support the grandparent's claim of "it's also pretty clear" - as in this is what people believe. If I had evidence that it "is true" that AGI will be here in 5 years, I probably would be doing something else with my time than participating in these threads ;)
- dbbk 2y agoWhat is this supposed to be evidence of? People believing hype?