3 ms·

> pretty clear Pretty clear?

• falcor84 2y ago
  Not the parent, but in prediction markets such as Metaculus[0] and Manifold[1] the median prediction is of AGI within 5 years. [0] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-... [1] https://manifold.markets/ai https://manifold.markets/ai
  • JohnMakin 2y ago
    Prediction markets are evidence of nothing but what people believe is true, not what is true.
    • falcor84 2y ago
      Oh, that was my intent, to support the grandparent's claim of "it's also pretty clear" - as in this is what people believe. If I had evidence that it "is true" that AGI will be here in 5 years, I probably would be doing something else with my time than participating in these threads ;)
  • dbbk 2y ago
    What is this supposed to be evidence of? People believing hype?