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Am I correct to assume people are upvoting this as a possible explanation for the outcome of the US Presidential election? I.e., if people think that they are

Am I correct to assume people are upvoting this as a possible explanation for the outcome of the US Presidential election? I.e., if people think that they are in economic doldrums or decline, taking a risk seems better than the status quo? Voting out the incumbent party seems popular during economic downturns (real or perceived) unless the party clearly inherited the economic crisis AND seems to be addressing the problem energetically (e.g., post-1929 FDR).

hyperpape 2y ago
I immediately jumped to a commentary on the impacts of AI, but really it's probably a bit of a Rohrschach test.
brailsafe 2y ago
I had a similar thought recently as someone not in the U.S and who doesn't care that much. If hypothetically prompted, there's a way in which I could say "Well it was more sensible to vote for Trump". If no other context was asked for, I'd probably be thought of as a Trump person, but if it was, I'd explain that I can see why a lot of people preferred him or didn't prefer the other, therefore for them it's sensible, and democracy worked as intended.
- immibis 2y ago
  It's incredible how, unlike the first Trump presidency, nobody is trying to convince anyone that a Trump presidency will be bad. It's as if all relevant information has already been shared and there is no point in repeating it. Instead they just shift all their money to the stock market and Tesla, and/or leave the state or country.
  - brailsafe 2y ago
    Which ultimately is the best course of action, but whoever would try doesn't have much of a compelling alternative to suggest, and probably it doesn't matter that much. As a citizen you can vote, and beyond that you're probably wasting your (expensive) time and energy. To me it's akin to the people who stay in their hometown haplessly hoping it'll eventually align with what they want it to be like (while secretly hoping it doesn't change that much in the other direction); the only answer really is to just respond sensibly and gtfo for sometimes literally greener grass. Gosh I wish my hometown would build a proper transit system, but it's completely economically destitute and fiscally conservative, and now that I live in an objectively better city that has one, the scope in which I need to care is limited to when I visit.
  - watwut 2y ago
    I have read multiple articles claiming his choices for various positions are bad. They just think they are intentionally bad, that corruption and destruction is the point for both Trump and his core supporters. It is what it is. Assuming good faith and arguing with that assumption is not a thing that makes sense anymore.
  - anonymouskimmer 2y ago
    Not what I'm reading on Substack/Ghost. I have a liberal bubble, though. https://substack.perfectunion.us/p/restaurant-chains-won-big-on-election https://substack.perfectunion.us/p/restaurant-chains-won-big... https://www.the-sentinel-intelligence.net/things-can-always-get-worse/ https://www.the-sentinel-intelligence.net/things-can-always-... https://scottsumner.substack.com/p/thoughts-on-the-trump-biden-trump https://scottsumner.substack.com/p/thoughts-on-the-trump-bid...
immibis 2y ago
I don't think this is sufficient to make a Trump vote logical - if you've paid any attention at all to how the Republicans and Democrats operate, the expectation value of a Republican presidency is much lower than a Democrat one, for most people, under any reasonable utility function. It really is as simple: if you feel bad, vote for the other guy. (Which is also how [REDACTED BY MODERATOR] got elected)
- KerrAvon 2y ago
  Right wing media has been making people feel bad for 25 years straight now. They radicalized an entire generation and made them fear brown people and Democrats. Despite the fact none of it's reality-based. It's not working out too great for the country! Elon Musk continuously and publicly falling for the dumbest shit imaginable really should be the final nail in the coffin of his reputation.
  - anonymouskimmer 2y ago
    [dead]
lapcat 2y ago
I don't think a rational calculus can be applied to voting in a US Presidential election, because it's irrational to expect that your vote could change the outcome of the election. That's never happened, not even in Florida in 2000. You have a better chance of winning the lottery, as evidenced by the fact that people do win the lottery. Voting tends to be more of a symbolic or "ethical" act than an rational act, though one vote has occasionally made a difference in much smaller, local races. Frankly, voting "strategically" in a US Presidential election makes about as much sense as choosing lottery numbers strategically. Rhetorical question: if the voters are rational, then how do we always end up with liars, crooks, and incompetents, a choice between the lesser of evils? When was the last time a President, or a Presidential candidate, has been among the best of us? No, elections are exercises in mass irrationality, glorified beauty pageants.
- tzs 2y ago
  Choosing lottery numbers strategically does make sense, because your expected value depends on both whether or not your number wins and on how many other people picked the same number. A lot of people pick dates, or numbers that have won recently, or that form geometric patterns on the ticket, or that form interesting sequences, and so on. Nothing you can do (assuming no bias in how the winning numbers are generated) will affect the chances your ticket wins, but by picking randomly from the set of possible tickets that doesn't include those commonly picked sets of numbers you can decrease the expected number of people you'll have to share the jackpot with.
  - lapcat 2y ago
    > A lot of people pick dates Yes, birth dates of themselves and family members, which are randomly distributed in the population, and which you can't possibly know, because you don't know the identity of other lottery buyers. > or numbers that have won recently Do people do this? I'd assume they do the opposite of this. > or that form geometric patterns on the ticket, or that form interesting sequences, and so on. This is all hand-waving. Please list the numbers that I shouldn't choose. > those commonly picked sets of numbers What are those numbers? In any case, even if you eliminated several thousand numbers from the pool of possibilities, that doesn't really help you choose a specific set of numbers from the millions of possibilities, other than not those.
darepublic 2y ago
Yes and the incumbent strategy on this for round was largely to say "This is fine" with a notable lack of enthusiasm
- anonymouskimmer 2y ago
  That was the news release strategy, the actual behind the scenes strategies were a bit more enthusiastic based on what I've been reading on Substack. https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/november-14-2024 https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/november-14-2024

hyperpape 2y ago

I immediately jumped to a commentary on the impacts of AI, but really it's probably a bit of a Rohrschach test.

brailsafe 2y ago

I had a similar thought recently as someone not in the U.S and who doesn't care that much. If hypothetically prompted, there's a way in which I could say "Well it was more sensible to vote for Trump". If no other context was asked for, I'd probably be thought of as a Trump person, but if it was, I'd explain that I can see why a lot of people preferred him or didn't prefer the other, therefore for them it's sensible, and democracy worked as intended.

immibis 2y ago
It's incredible how, unlike the first Trump presidency, nobody is trying to convince anyone that a Trump presidency will be bad. It's as if all relevant information has already been shared and there is no point in repeating it. Instead they just shift all their money to the stock market and Tesla, and/or leave the state or country.
- brailsafe 2y ago
  Which ultimately is the best course of action, but whoever would try doesn't have much of a compelling alternative to suggest, and probably it doesn't matter that much. As a citizen you can vote, and beyond that you're probably wasting your (expensive) time and energy. To me it's akin to the people who stay in their hometown haplessly hoping it'll eventually align with what they want it to be like (while secretly hoping it doesn't change that much in the other direction); the only answer really is to just respond sensibly and gtfo for sometimes literally greener grass. Gosh I wish my hometown would build a proper transit system, but it's completely economically destitute and fiscally conservative, and now that I live in an objectively better city that has one, the scope in which I need to care is limited to when I visit.
- watwut 2y ago
  I have read multiple articles claiming his choices for various positions are bad. They just think they are intentionally bad, that corruption and destruction is the point for both Trump and his core supporters. It is what it is. Assuming good faith and arguing with that assumption is not a thing that makes sense anymore.
- anonymouskimmer 2y ago
  Not what I'm reading on Substack/Ghost. I have a liberal bubble, though. https://substack.perfectunion.us/p/restaurant-chains-won-big-on-election https://substack.perfectunion.us/p/restaurant-chains-won-big... https://www.the-sentinel-intelligence.net/things-can-always-get-worse/ https://www.the-sentinel-intelligence.net/things-can-always-... https://scottsumner.substack.com/p/thoughts-on-the-trump-biden-trump https://scottsumner.substack.com/p/thoughts-on-the-trump-bid...

immibis 2y ago

I don't think this is sufficient to make a Trump vote logical - if you've paid any attention at all to how the Republicans and Democrats operate, the expectation value of a Republican presidency is much lower than a Democrat one, for most people, under any reasonable utility function. It really is as simple: if you feel bad, vote for the other guy. (Which is also how [REDACTED BY MODERATOR] got elected)

KerrAvon 2y ago
Right wing media has been making people feel bad for 25 years straight now. They radicalized an entire generation and made them fear brown people and Democrats. Despite the fact none of it's reality-based. It's not working out too great for the country! Elon Musk continuously and publicly falling for the dumbest shit imaginable really should be the final nail in the coffin of his reputation.
- anonymouskimmer 2y ago
  [dead]

lapcat 2y ago

I don't think a rational calculus can be applied to voting in a US Presidential election, because it's irrational to expect that your vote could change the outcome of the election. That's never happened, not even in Florida in 2000. You have a better chance of winning the lottery, as evidenced by the fact that people do win the lottery. Voting tends to be more of a symbolic or "ethical" act than an rational act, though one vote has occasionally made a difference in much smaller, local races. Frankly, voting "strategically" in a US Presidential election makes about as much sense as choosing lottery numbers strategically. Rhetorical question: if the voters are rational, then how do we always end up with liars, crooks, and incompetents, a choice between the lesser of evils? When was the last time a President, or a Presidential candidate, has been among the best of us? No, elections are exercises in mass irrationality, glorified beauty pageants.

tzs 2y ago
Choosing lottery numbers strategically does make sense, because your expected value depends on both whether or not your number wins and on how many other people picked the same number. A lot of people pick dates, or numbers that have won recently, or that form geometric patterns on the ticket, or that form interesting sequences, and so on. Nothing you can do (assuming no bias in how the winning numbers are generated) will affect the chances your ticket wins, but by picking randomly from the set of possible tickets that doesn't include those commonly picked sets of numbers you can decrease the expected number of people you'll have to share the jackpot with.
- lapcat 2y ago
  > A lot of people pick dates Yes, birth dates of themselves and family members, which are randomly distributed in the population, and which you can't possibly know, because you don't know the identity of other lottery buyers. > or numbers that have won recently Do people do this? I'd assume they do the opposite of this. > or that form geometric patterns on the ticket, or that form interesting sequences, and so on. This is all hand-waving. Please list the numbers that I shouldn't choose. > those commonly picked sets of numbers What are those numbers? In any case, even if you eliminated several thousand numbers from the pool of possibilities, that doesn't really help you choose a specific set of numbers from the millions of possibilities, other than not those.

darepublic 2y ago

Yes and the incumbent strategy on this for round was largely to say "This is fine" with a notable lack of enthusiasm

anonymouskimmer 2y ago
That was the news release strategy, the actual behind the scenes strategies were a bit more enthusiastic based on what I've been reading on Substack. https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/november-14-2024 https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/november-14-2024