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It's easy to be snarky at ill-informed and hyperbolic takes, but it's also pretty clear that large multi-modal models trained with the data we already have, are
by aaroninsf 2y ago
It's easy to be snarky at ill-informed and hyperbolic takes, but it's also pretty clear that large multi-modal models trained with the data we already have, are going to eventually give us AGI.
IMO this will require not just much more expansive multi-modal training, but also novel architecture, specifically, recurrent approaches; plus a well-known set of capabilities most systems don't currently have, e.g. the integration of short-term memory (context window if you like) into long-term "memory", either episodic or otherwise.
But these are as we say mere matters of engineering.
- tartoran 2y ago> pretty clear Pretty clear?
- falcor84 2y agoNot the parent, but in prediction markets such as Metaculus[0] and Manifold[1] the median prediction is of AGI within 5 years. [0] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-... [1] https://manifold.markets/ai https://manifold.markets/ai
- JohnMakin 2y agoPrediction markets are evidence of nothing but what people believe is true, not what is true.
- falcor84 2y agoOh, that was my intent, to support the grandparent's claim of "it's also pretty clear" - as in this is what people believe. If I had evidence that it "is true" that AGI will be here in 5 years, I probably would be doing something else with my time than participating in these threads ;)
- dbbk 2y agoWhat is this supposed to be evidence of? People believing hype?
- throwawa14223 2y agoWhy is that clear? Why is that more probable than a second AI winter? What if there's no path from LLMs to anything else?