4 ms·

It doesn't strike me as correct that this election was really about the economy. Yes, inflation isn't great. It causes pain, and I expect people to take that o

It doesn't strike me as correct that this election was really about the economy. Yes, inflation isn't great. It causes pain, and I expect people to take that out on a President and their party. But this isn't the 1970s. The inflation was present but not double-digits. It peaked two years ago, and has been under 4% for over a year. It's close to 2% now. These just aren't throw-the-bums-out numbers. The alternative has not offered up a cogent answer either. And he is widely reviled. He is a convicted criminal; vast swathes of his cabinet and advisers have spent time in jail. He promotes transparently-false conspiracy theories. Numerous members of his own party endorsed his opponent -- including his own former Vice President. I just don't think it's as simple as "I hate the price of eggs so we need anybody else." The country just isn't in bad enough shape for that explanation to suffice. So I think it's bad advice to tell Democrats to over-fit their policies. Something is going to go wrong during their term. But there seems to be an asymmetry: Democrats will be punished for even the slightest misstep, while Republican candidates can literally call for violent rebellion and receive acclimation for it. Yes, Democrats will continue to have to learn and improve their policies. But it's not going to improve their electoral changes when faced with that asymmetry. I have no advice for them, other than to wait it out. Much has to do with the particular person who is our next President. It's unclear what the nation, and the party, will look like in four years. I don't believe that the particular kind of fine-tuning that the article calls for is really going to benefit them. It just shifts the question away from why we just elected somebody whose first act will be to pardon himself for crimes.

jfengel 2y ago
Incidentally... I do expect inflation to fall over the next two years. The key driver of prices was fuel, which impacts everything else. And much of that has to do with sanctions against Russia, a key fossil fuel producer. So I see it as likely that we will end those sanctions, and prices will drop. That will undoubtedly be popular. I also strongly suspect it will be accompanied by a genocide in Ukraine. I consider it unfortunate that Americans won't give that nearly as much weight.
bell-cot 2y ago
> But this isn't the 1970s. The inflation was present but not double-digits. It peaked two years ago, and has been under 4% for over a year. It's close to 2% now. These just aren't throw-the-bums-out numbers. For most of the less-well-to-do populace, "inflation" is not some official number published by the government. It is what they experience, in their own lives, when trying to make ends meet every week. In my part of the US (Michigan), many monthly apartment rents rose by more than 50% during Biden's 4 years. Between the already-too-large fractions of their incomes that were going to rent pre-Biden, all the other price increases they were seeing, and Biden's conspicuous lack of interest in them and their plight - those folks had, from their PoV, excellent reason to throw the bums out. And they did - Michigan's 15 Electoral Votes went to Trump.

jfengel 2y ago

Incidentally... I do expect inflation to fall over the next two years. The key driver of prices was fuel, which impacts everything else. And much of that has to do with sanctions against Russia, a key fossil fuel producer. So I see it as likely that we will end those sanctions, and prices will drop. That will undoubtedly be popular. I also strongly suspect it will be accompanied by a genocide in Ukraine. I consider it unfortunate that Americans won't give that nearly as much weight.

bell-cot 2y ago

> But this isn't the 1970s. The inflation was present but not double-digits. It peaked two years ago, and has been under 4% for over a year. It's close to 2% now. These just aren't throw-the-bums-out numbers. For most of the less-well-to-do populace, "inflation" is not some official number published by the government. It is what they experience, in their own lives, when trying to make ends meet every week. In my part of the US (Michigan), many monthly apartment rents rose by more than 50% during Biden's 4 years. Between the already-too-large fractions of their incomes that were going to rent pre-Biden, all the other price increases they were seeing, and Biden's conspicuous lack of interest in them and their plight - those folks had, from their PoV, excellent reason to throw the bums out. And they did - Michigan's 15 Electoral Votes went to Trump.