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Making these statements after the fact is tricky. Very tricky. I would be interested in a blog post explaining it. The classical fallacy is attributing skill
by fn-mote 2y ago
Making these statements after the fact is tricky.
Very tricky.
I would be interested in a blog post explaining it.
The classical fallacy is attributing skill to someone who has successfully predicted 10 coin flips (or market trends) in a row, ignoring the fact that there were many other people making different predictions and there was always going to be one of them who was successful.
- seizethecheese 2y agoOf course this is true, and the observation is underpowered. However, on election night it wasn’t just about being right it was about digesting information in real time and promulgating information faster. For example, polymarket had trump at like 99% likelihood of winning when the networks were still playing “horse race”.