4 ms·

How long ago and what has the outcome been? Curious to start learning more abut what we might be walking into.

by mtnGoat 2y ago

meiraleal 2y ago
Unemployment and recession. But after a year, inflation is back to the levels of when he got in power
- credit_guy 2y ago
  > But after a year, inflation is back to the levels of when he got in power Is that so? You mean this AP release from today is fake [1]? >BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) — Argentina’s inflation slowed to 2.7% in October, the lowest level in three years in a win for the libertarian government of President Javier Milei who came to power almost a year ago promising to pull Argentina out of a dire economic crisis. [1] https://apnews.com/article/argentina-inflation-milei-economy-21560cec4fd473a95155adf06ca46c4a https://apnews.com/article/argentina-inflation-milei-economy...
  - pgodzin 2y ago
    Just to be clear, that's monthly inflation, not annual. Annual is still 193%
    - defrost 2y ago
      Expanding on this, ("monthly rate" Vs "month by month projected annual rate" figures) "When he was elected" (December 2023) he came in on the November 2023 annual inflation rate of 160.9%. At the end of December 2023 the annual inflation rate was 211.4% From the AP News link: On an annual basis, inflation in October (2024) was 193% compared to 209% reported in September (2024). As a chart, see: https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi and select time frame of interest, 1YR is tight, 3YR shows the rise and fall. The inflation rate is headed toward the 'low' of November 2023 but hasn't quite yet descended there yet.
    - WalterBright 2y ago
      It's been less than a year. Inflation lags deficit money creation by about 13 months.
      - pgodzin 2y ago
        sure, just wanted to point that out since someone who didn't read the article could have easily assumed that was an annual number, as in the US we are used to 2ish percent annual inflation being the target.
  - GeoRandel 2y ago
    Not to mention the countless other successes. Like ending rent control causing the housing supply to skyrocket, lowering rent prices across the board. https://reason.com/2024/10/11/argentina-ended-rent-control-guess-what-happened-next/ https://reason.com/2024/10/11/argentina-ended-rent-control-g... Afuera!
    - fzeroracer 2y ago
      > Here's another interesting fact from Argentina's rent controls, per the Journal: "In Buenos Aires—a city dubbed the Paris of the South for its broad avenues and cafe culture—many apartments long sat empty, with landlords preferring to keep them vacant, or lease them as vacation rentals, rather than comply with the government's rent law." The newspaper said that owners of many of those 200,000 units are now putting them on the market. > I've reported on a similar situation in San Francisco, which has more than 52,000 vacant units. Many owners would rather keep them empty than rent them out under the city's rent-control terms So it's just a bunch of oligarchs owning far more land and buildings than they should withholding supply artificially. Then they can artifically ease off of it to make things look better for their preferred candidate even though rent prices aren't that much better. Even the article admits rent prices are still going up year over year, it's only when adjusted for inflation that it looks slightly better (which, also ironic given that his policies seem to have sharply raised inflation). So your average person still gets fucked.
      - rendang 2y ago
        I don't know what "artificial" is supposed to mean here. Landlords respond to incentives; if letting out a unit means they'll be stuck with a rent controlled tenant (or in the US, stuck with a tenant-favorable legal environment that will leave them on the hook for damages and missed rent) then the smart thing to do is STR or use the apartment as your own guest home etc.
        archagon 2y ago
        The smart thing for the government to do would be to make sitting on rental property illegal. Without rent control, my friends and I could not afford to live in SF. It’s one of the only things keeping the city from being completely captured by the wealthy.
  - meiraleal 2y ago
    It is interesting that nobody contested the unemployment and recession (-4% of GDP) part. as pgdozin and defrost explained, annual inflation was around 160% 1 year ago and now is 193%.
tim333 2y ago
About a year. Paste on how it's going: >How is it going so far? If we were giving out report cards, Milei’s tenure would get a B+ to A- grade. Unusually for Argentina, the country has been running a fiscal surplus since the beginning of the year, inflation is down substantially, but the economy is not yet displaying clear signs of a recovery. However, inflation has come down not just because the fiscal accounts have been turned to a surplus, but also because the economy is in recession and the currency is appreciating in real terms. https://globalamericans.org/explainer-mileis-economic-program-and-argentinas-turnaround/ https://globalamericans.org/explainer-mileis-economic-progra... I'd say reasonably well given the problems in the country. The US is a very different situation.

How long ago and what has the outcome been? Curious to start learning more abut what we might be walking into.

meiraleal 2y ago

Unemployment and recession. But after a year, inflation is back to the levels of when he got in power

credit_guy 2y ago
> But after a year, inflation is back to the levels of when he got in power Is that so? You mean this AP release from today is fake [1]? >BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) — Argentina’s inflation slowed to 2.7% in October, the lowest level in three years in a win for the libertarian government of President Javier Milei who came to power almost a year ago promising to pull Argentina out of a dire economic crisis. [1] https://apnews.com/article/argentina-inflation-milei-economy-21560cec4fd473a95155adf06ca46c4a https://apnews.com/article/argentina-inflation-milei-economy...
- pgodzin 2y ago
  Just to be clear, that's monthly inflation, not annual. Annual is still 193%
  - defrost 2y ago
    Expanding on this, ("monthly rate" Vs "month by month projected annual rate" figures) "When he was elected" (December 2023) he came in on the November 2023 annual inflation rate of 160.9%. At the end of December 2023 the annual inflation rate was 211.4% From the AP News link: On an annual basis, inflation in October (2024) was 193% compared to 209% reported in September (2024). As a chart, see: https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi and select time frame of interest, 1YR is tight, 3YR shows the rise and fall. The inflation rate is headed toward the 'low' of November 2023 but hasn't quite yet descended there yet.
  - WalterBright 2y ago
    It's been less than a year. Inflation lags deficit money creation by about 13 months.
    - pgodzin 2y ago
      sure, just wanted to point that out since someone who didn't read the article could have easily assumed that was an annual number, as in the US we are used to 2ish percent annual inflation being the target.
- GeoRandel 2y ago
  Not to mention the countless other successes. Like ending rent control causing the housing supply to skyrocket, lowering rent prices across the board. https://reason.com/2024/10/11/argentina-ended-rent-control-guess-what-happened-next/ https://reason.com/2024/10/11/argentina-ended-rent-control-g... Afuera!
  - fzeroracer 2y ago
    > Here's another interesting fact from Argentina's rent controls, per the Journal: "In Buenos Aires—a city dubbed the Paris of the South for its broad avenues and cafe culture—many apartments long sat empty, with landlords preferring to keep them vacant, or lease them as vacation rentals, rather than comply with the government's rent law." The newspaper said that owners of many of those 200,000 units are now putting them on the market. > I've reported on a similar situation in San Francisco, which has more than 52,000 vacant units. Many owners would rather keep them empty than rent them out under the city's rent-control terms So it's just a bunch of oligarchs owning far more land and buildings than they should withholding supply artificially. Then they can artifically ease off of it to make things look better for their preferred candidate even though rent prices aren't that much better. Even the article admits rent prices are still going up year over year, it's only when adjusted for inflation that it looks slightly better (which, also ironic given that his policies seem to have sharply raised inflation). So your average person still gets fucked.
    - rendang 2y ago
      I don't know what "artificial" is supposed to mean here. Landlords respond to incentives; if letting out a unit means they'll be stuck with a rent controlled tenant (or in the US, stuck with a tenant-favorable legal environment that will leave them on the hook for damages and missed rent) then the smart thing to do is STR or use the apartment as your own guest home etc.
      - archagon 2y ago
        The smart thing for the government to do would be to make sitting on rental property illegal. Without rent control, my friends and I could not afford to live in SF. It’s one of the only things keeping the city from being completely captured by the wealthy.
- meiraleal 2y ago
  It is interesting that nobody contested the unemployment and recession (-4% of GDP) part. as pgdozin and defrost explained, annual inflation was around 160% 1 year ago and now is 193%.

tim333 2y ago

About a year. Paste on how it's going: >How is it going so far? If we were giving out report cards, Milei’s tenure would get a B+ to A- grade. Unusually for Argentina, the country has been running a fiscal surplus since the beginning of the year, inflation is down substantially, but the economy is not yet displaying clear signs of a recovery. However, inflation has come down not just because the fiscal accounts have been turned to a surplus, but also because the economy is in recession and the currency is appreciating in real terms. https://globalamericans.org/explainer-mileis-economic-program-and-argentinas-turnaround/ https://globalamericans.org/explainer-mileis-economic-progra... I'd say reasonably well given the problems in the country. The US is a very different situation.