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But the aide won't have deeply analyzed every military campaign in history; it will only spout off answers from books about those campaigns. It will have littl

But the aide won't have deeply analyzed every military campaign in history; it will only spout off answers from books about those campaigns. It will have little to no insight on how to apply principles and lessons learned from similar campaigns in the current problem. Wars are not won by lines on maps. They're not won by cool gear. They're won by psychologically beating down the enemy until they're ready to surrender or open peace negotiations. Can LLMs get in an enemy's head?

fragmede 2y ago
Only if the enemy has provided a large corpus of writing and other data to submit to train the LLM on.
ben_w 2y ago
> Can LLMs get in an enemy's head? That may be much easier for an LLM than all the other things you listed. Read their socials, write a script that grabs the voices and faces of their loved ones from videos they've shared, synthesise a video call… And yes, they can write the scripts even if they don't have the power to clone voices and faces themselves. I have no idea what's coming. But this is going to be a wild decade even if nothing new gets invented.
- psunavy03 2y ago
  Creating chaos and confusion is great, but it's only part of what a military campaign needs. You have to be able to use all levers of government power to put the other government or the adversary organization in a point where they feel compelled to quit or negotiate.
  - ben_w 2y ago
    Aye. FWIW, I hope all those other things remain a long way off. Whoever's doing war game planning needs to consider the possibility of AI that can do those other things, but I'm going to have to just hope.
JohnMakin 2y ago
The person you are responding to seems to be promoting a concept that is frequently spouted here and other places, but to me lacking sufficient or any evidence - that AI models, particularly LLMs, are both capable of reasoning (or what we consider reasoning) around problems and generating novel insights that it hasn't been trained on.

fragmede 2y ago

Only if the enemy has provided a large corpus of writing and other data to submit to train the LLM on.

ben_w 2y ago

> Can LLMs get in an enemy's head? That may be much easier for an LLM than all the other things you listed. Read their socials, write a script that grabs the voices and faces of their loved ones from videos they've shared, synthesise a video call… And yes, they can write the scripts even if they don't have the power to clone voices and faces themselves. I have no idea what's coming. But this is going to be a wild decade even if nothing new gets invented.

psunavy03 2y ago
Creating chaos and confusion is great, but it's only part of what a military campaign needs. You have to be able to use all levers of government power to put the other government or the adversary organization in a point where they feel compelled to quit or negotiate.
- ben_w 2y ago
  Aye. FWIW, I hope all those other things remain a long way off. Whoever's doing war game planning needs to consider the possibility of AI that can do those other things, but I'm going to have to just hope.

JohnMakin 2y ago

The person you are responding to seems to be promoting a concept that is frequently spouted here and other places, but to me lacking sufficient or any evidence - that AI models, particularly LLMs, are both capable of reasoning (or what we consider reasoning) around problems and generating novel insights that it hasn't been trained on.