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The number one issue people say motivated them to vote for Trump/Boris/Wilders/et al is “cost of living”. Ie: wages have been falling behind for decades now. T

The number one issue people say motivated them to vote for Trump/Boris/Wilders/et al is “cost of living”. Ie: wages have been falling behind for decades now. The other issues may play in to it, but that only keeps the wheels on the cart for so long. 2024 we’re finally seeing the complete aversion to solving the cost of living crisis that has developed since the 90s become no longer avoidable. I worry from a lot of responses from US democrats (and British Labour, and…) that we’re in for a rough ride because they fundamentally will never countenance that. It’s always an issue with the voter (education, Russia, misinformation, racism) instead. As the piece said, pointing to GDP, economic data and saying things are actually good, while overlooking that this masks economic inequality is not engaging with that issue. Edit: to clarify, this is not a dig at you. I have also continued to vote for centre left parties that ignored this inconvenient fact, doing little about house prices, wages, etc. But this can't continue if we don't want to see ever more authoritarian leaders.

bloppe 2y ago
This is actually also a lie (at least in America). Real income (after adjusting for inflation) has been rising at the median [1]. The bottom quintile got reamed by Covid but have been the biggest beneficiaries of inflation [2] (which tends to be bad only for people with savings) and the covid slump was more than compensated for by stimmy checks [3]. The Gini coefficient has been pretty stable since 1990. There's only a cost of living crisis in cities with epic nimby-induced housing shortages, but most Americans don't live in those cities. [1]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N [2]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CXU900000LB0102M https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CXU900000LB0102M [3]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CXUINCAFTTXLB0102M https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CXUINCAFTTXLB0102M
- drawfloat 2y ago
  You're sort of making the exact mistake I mentioned here. How far do those wages go vs the 70s? Add together housing costs, fuel costs, healthcare costs, transport costs, food costs, general price rises? Why can single income households no longer really support a family with a house if everything's got better and everyone is lying?
  - bloppe 2y ago
    They go further. That's why I linked to median real income. It's exactly the stat that matters: looking at the actual person in the middle of the pack (not the mean, which is distorted by outliers) and controlling for inflation using the CPI, which uses a weighted average of hundreds of different cost categories to represent typical spending. I think housing makes up like 40% of it (don't quote me on that though) so it's definitely being taken into account. Food and healthcare are also big parts. Now you may not have a typical spending profile (a lot of people in NYC spend way more than 40% on rent) but the economy is broadly doing quite well. Why can't you buy a house? You probably could, but probably not in the location you want. This was one of the most enlightening articles I've read on why: https://goodreason.substack.com/p/maybe-treating-housing-as-an-investment https://goodreason.substack.com/p/maybe-treating-housing-as-...
    - drawfloat 2y ago
      Housing in my hometown (ex-mining town, incredibly poor) has increased 1172% since the mid 1990s (£11k->£112k). Salaries have increased less than 100% in that time (£15,034 -> £29,593)
      - bloppe 2y ago
        Sounds like the mining bust is a big factor, which isn't exactly representative of the whole economy. Also sounds like you're not in the US so none of my stats are relevant to you.
- snehk 2y ago
  "Your grandpa/dad was able to support a family on a single income, have two cars, a house and a nice vacation every year and you struggle to pay for food and a place to live? That's a lie. Look at these stats, dummy."
  - lostmsu 2y ago
    TBH, even students have a car and go on vacations these days.
    - leereeves 2y ago
      Funded by student loans that they will later struggle to repay.
      - lostmsu 2y ago
        While still having a car and going on vacations?
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- mike_hearn 2y ago
  Citing Fed data to argue that people's understanding of their own economic situation is a "lie" is ... brave, and the sort of thing that led to the Democrat's current situation. The map is not the territory. Inflation is very bad for the poor. Much worse than for the rich. People's wages lag behind price rises and may not rise at all if someone is unable to gain leverage over their employer. The rich tend to keep their savings in the sort of financial assets that benefit from the way modern governments print money, so they often benefit tremendously. Who did the best out of COVID policy: a guy who works in an Amazon warehouse and can be replaced at the drop of a hat if he asks for a raise, or someone who has a ton of money in Amazon shares? The stimmy cheques are a big part of why there was inflation. They definitely didn't cancel it out.
  - bloppe 2y ago
    This isn't about an individual. It's about America's economy, which is broadly doing very well. I never claimed it's universally doing well for every single person. That's statistically impossible. Inflation can come in many forms. The wave we just had came during a historically tight job market, so yes, the poor (those without any savings) didn't do bad. Remember the labor shortage? One of the main reasons inflation went down this year was the huge influx of migrants alleviating it. I'll concede that's not doing any short term favors for the poor right now (though it's important to remember that immigration pretty much always makes everyone better off, poor included, after a generation or so), but in 2022 the middle class was definitely suffering more than the actual poor. This was not necessarily the case outside the US where the job market was not as crazy. The stimmy checks helped with the initial Covid job shock, which was the intention. Of course they contributed to inflation.
    - thunky 2y ago
      > This isn't about an individual. It's about America's economy, which is broadly doing very well I think you may be missing the parent's point, because you're repeating the mistake. An individual doesn't care that the economy is "doing very well" if they're personally struggling. It probably makes it worse, actually. And telling them that they're wrong or stupid certainly doesn't make it better either. Bernie gets it: https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-support-democratic-voters-1981996 https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-support-democratic-v...

bloppe 2y ago

This is actually also a lie (at least in America). Real income (after adjusting for inflation) has been rising at the median [1]. The bottom quintile got reamed by Covid but have been the biggest beneficiaries of inflation [2] (which tends to be bad only for people with savings) and the covid slump was more than compensated for by stimmy checks [3]. The Gini coefficient has been pretty stable since 1990. There's only a cost of living crisis in cities with epic nimby-induced housing shortages, but most Americans don't live in those cities. [1]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N [2]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CXU900000LB0102M https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CXU900000LB0102M [3]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CXUINCAFTTXLB0102M https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CXUINCAFTTXLB0102M

drawfloat 2y ago
You're sort of making the exact mistake I mentioned here. How far do those wages go vs the 70s? Add together housing costs, fuel costs, healthcare costs, transport costs, food costs, general price rises? Why can single income households no longer really support a family with a house if everything's got better and everyone is lying?
- bloppe 2y ago
  They go further. That's why I linked to median real income. It's exactly the stat that matters: looking at the actual person in the middle of the pack (not the mean, which is distorted by outliers) and controlling for inflation using the CPI, which uses a weighted average of hundreds of different cost categories to represent typical spending. I think housing makes up like 40% of it (don't quote me on that though) so it's definitely being taken into account. Food and healthcare are also big parts. Now you may not have a typical spending profile (a lot of people in NYC spend way more than 40% on rent) but the economy is broadly doing quite well. Why can't you buy a house? You probably could, but probably not in the location you want. This was one of the most enlightening articles I've read on why: https://goodreason.substack.com/p/maybe-treating-housing-as-an-investment https://goodreason.substack.com/p/maybe-treating-housing-as-...
  - drawfloat 2y ago
    Housing in my hometown (ex-mining town, incredibly poor) has increased 1172% since the mid 1990s (£11k->£112k). Salaries have increased less than 100% in that time (£15,034 -> £29,593)
    - bloppe 2y ago
      Sounds like the mining bust is a big factor, which isn't exactly representative of the whole economy. Also sounds like you're not in the US so none of my stats are relevant to you.
snehk 2y ago
"Your grandpa/dad was able to support a family on a single income, have two cars, a house and a nice vacation every year and you struggle to pay for food and a place to live? That's a lie. Look at these stats, dummy."
- lostmsu 2y ago
  TBH, even students have a car and go on vacations these days.
  - leereeves 2y ago
    Funded by student loans that they will later struggle to repay.
    - lostmsu 2y ago
      While still having a car and going on vacations?
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
mike_hearn 2y ago
Citing Fed data to argue that people's understanding of their own economic situation is a "lie" is ... brave, and the sort of thing that led to the Democrat's current situation. The map is not the territory. Inflation is very bad for the poor. Much worse than for the rich. People's wages lag behind price rises and may not rise at all if someone is unable to gain leverage over their employer. The rich tend to keep their savings in the sort of financial assets that benefit from the way modern governments print money, so they often benefit tremendously. Who did the best out of COVID policy: a guy who works in an Amazon warehouse and can be replaced at the drop of a hat if he asks for a raise, or someone who has a ton of money in Amazon shares? The stimmy cheques are a big part of why there was inflation. They definitely didn't cancel it out.
- bloppe 2y ago
  This isn't about an individual. It's about America's economy, which is broadly doing very well. I never claimed it's universally doing well for every single person. That's statistically impossible. Inflation can come in many forms. The wave we just had came during a historically tight job market, so yes, the poor (those without any savings) didn't do bad. Remember the labor shortage? One of the main reasons inflation went down this year was the huge influx of migrants alleviating it. I'll concede that's not doing any short term favors for the poor right now (though it's important to remember that immigration pretty much always makes everyone better off, poor included, after a generation or so), but in 2022 the middle class was definitely suffering more than the actual poor. This was not necessarily the case outside the US where the job market was not as crazy. The stimmy checks helped with the initial Covid job shock, which was the intention. Of course they contributed to inflation.
  - thunky 2y ago
    > This isn't about an individual. It's about America's economy, which is broadly doing very well I think you may be missing the parent's point, because you're repeating the mistake. An individual doesn't care that the economy is "doing very well" if they're personally struggling. It probably makes it worse, actually. And telling them that they're wrong or stupid certainly doesn't make it better either. Bernie gets it: https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-support-democratic-voters-1981996 https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-support-democratic-v...