How much money was in this prediction market? I can’t imagine it was that much. The problem here may have been with a market that’s too small to motivate thinki

How much money was in this prediction market? I can’t imagine it was that much. The problem here may have been with a market that’s too small to motivate thinking through the issue beyond a simple base rate, not that its large size made influential betters act to change the outcome in order to profit from the market.