> See also the famous example of how a predictions market for when public figures will die is just an assassination market with extra steps. Why not just write

> See also the famous example of how a predictions market for when public figures will die is just an assassination market with extra steps. Why not just write it so that non-natural causes of death don't pay out? More generally, make it so you can't wager on illegal events / outcomes, or ones where a crime materially affected the outcome. Anyway, if someone bets big on a public figure being assassinated, and then that public figure gets assassinated, it would seem like a good place to start investigating would be to look at the people who made a lot of money from that bet.