4 ms·

I understand the claim, just not the reasoning for why that is the case. Is this driven by human psychology or economics of return? Why is a volatile market mor

I understand the claim, just not the reasoning for why that is the case. Is this driven by human psychology or economics of return? Why is a volatile market more fit?

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> Why is a volatile market more fit? More people get to feel like winners for longer [1]. And reward uncertainty makes gambling more additive [2]. For purposes of information discovery, volatility is bad. But for purposes of gambling, volatility is good. Running an information-discovery (or financial) platform is less profitable than running a gambling platform. Herego, operators will optimise their prediction markets for gamblers. [1] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10562822/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10562822/ [2] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3845016/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3845016/
- s1artibartfast 2y ago
  Thanks for clarifying. That line of thinking doesnt mean that a discovery planform can't exist. Even if one grants that gambling is more profitable than prediction, markets segment, saturate, and specialize all the time.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > Even if one grants that gambling is more profitable than prediction, markets segment, saturate, and specialize all the time It's difficult to see the niche for the academic market. More profit to the gambling platforms means more money for R&D, customer service, user retention and marketing. That means more liquidity. Gamblers means dumb money, which in turn attracts the smart money: if you're commissioning private polling to place more informed bets [1], you want to place a big bet against dumb money. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-07/prediction-markets-are-a-thing-now?srnd=undefined https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-07/predic...

4 ms·

I understand the claim, just not the reasoning for why that is the case. Is this driven by human psychology or economics of return? Why is a volatile market mor

by s1artibartfast 2y ago

I understand the claim, just not the reasoning for why that is the case. Is this driven by human psychology or economics of return? Why is a volatile market more fit?

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> Why is a volatile market more fit? More people get to feel like winners for longer [1]. And reward uncertainty makes gambling more additive [2]. For purposes of information discovery, volatility is bad. But for purposes of gambling, volatility is good. Running an information-discovery (or financial) platform is less profitable than running a gambling platform. Herego, operators will optimise their prediction markets for gamblers. [1] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10562822/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10562822/ [2] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3845016/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3845016/
- s1artibartfast 2y ago
  Thanks for clarifying. That line of thinking doesnt mean that a discovery planform can't exist. Even if one grants that gambling is more profitable than prediction, markets segment, saturate, and specialize all the time.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > Even if one grants that gambling is more profitable than prediction, markets segment, saturate, and specialize all the time It's difficult to see the niche for the academic market. More profit to the gambling platforms means more money for R&D, customer service, user retention and marketing. That means more liquidity. Gamblers means dumb money, which in turn attracts the smart money: if you're commissioning private polling to place more informed bets [1], you want to place a big bet against dumb money. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-07/prediction-markets-are-a-thing-now?srnd=undefined https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-07/predic...