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As a boglehead... that's just not how it works in the real world. Some people would treat the loss of $X worse than the gain of $X is good. Thus, they don't hav

As a boglehead... that's just not how it works in the real world. Some people would treat the loss of $X worse than the gain of $X is good. Thus, they don't have linear value for money (no one really does... if you lose 90% of your bank account, you still have dinner tonight; if you lose all of it, you might not). Some people want to come out neutral or lose a guaranteed small amount, rather than the chance to lose or gain the same amount. I'd pay $5 to avoid having to flip a $10k +/- coin. Thus, if I knew I would lose $10k if X got elected, I could place a $10k bet for Y to win.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> Some people would treat the loss of $X worse than the gain of $X is good Most people. "Loss aversion refers to a cognitive bias in which the same situation is perceived as worse if it is framed as a loss, rather than a gain" [1]. > I'd pay $5 to avoid having to flip a $10k +/- coin Risk aversion. Seemingly related, but in fact quite rational. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion