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The problem is that if a prediction market exposed the fact that 80% of their most accurate betters are betting for YES, then wouldn't that skew the rest of the
by smokedetector1 2y ago
The problem is that if a prediction market exposed the fact that 80% of their most accurate betters are betting for YES, then wouldn't that skew the rest of the market? If I'm on there and I think it's about 50/50 chances, but I see that the super-betters are mostly saying YES, I'm probably going to vote YES too.
- s1artibartfast 2y agoI flagged that as implication #2. They would have to keep the market participants in the dark about it, and find a confidential use for the private forecast. If polymarket had an internal 80-20 model based on super-forecasters, they wouldn't disclose that, but they might have paying customers for it outside the prediction market itself. For example, stock traders might pay for the private model. If I could pay the NYSE for real time trading info on the buy/sell limits from warren buffet and other whales, I would.