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Ukraine and Russia both actively use wooden, inflatable, and painted decoys in the current war. [1][2] China's ICBM silo fields are almost certainly a strategy

by Brybry 2y ago

Ukraine and Russia both actively use wooden, inflatable, and painted decoys in the current war. [1][2] China's ICBM silo fields are almost certainly a strategy of mixed decoys and real silos. [3][4] China builds new silos under inflatable domes so you can't easily tell via satellite. [5] Decoys and camouflage are very much so still a thing. I don't think they would persist if they were not cost effective. [1] https://read.bradyafrick.com/p/russia-adds-decoy-aircraft-to-air https://read.bradyafrick.com/p/russia-adds-decoy-aircraft-to... [2] https://iari.site/2024/10/13/the-strategic-role-of-decoys-in-modern-warfare-the-conflict-in-ukraine/ https://iari.site/2024/10/13/the-strategic-role-of-decoys-in... [3] https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1212340/chinese-icbm-silos/ https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1212340/chinese-icbm... [4] https://fas.org/publication/a-closer-look-at-chinas-missile-silo-construction/ https://fas.org/publication/a-closer-look-at-chinas-missile-... [5] https://fas.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/OrdosSilos-2002x881.jpg https://fas.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/OrdosSilos-2002x8...

rtkwe 2y ago
It's easier to do with dedicated military facilities than it is with factories and particularly in the Chinese silo examples they can't hide they're building something there just disguising what it's purpose is. It's a lot harder to do that with a factory where you need to fake a lot more signs of life, material deliveries, workers, finished products rolling off the line. I'm not saying decoys as an entire category are dead just that disguising factories like the US did in WW2 is unlikely to work well in the modern world. We're way past the age where you can hide a whole huge factory. Imagery is just too good to hide something that large with that much activity around it.
- Brybry 2y ago
  Ukraine's still building stuff somehow though. Like here's a Sep 2024 source[1] (but anonymous) that says while some factories are underground others are "at ground level, but duplicated and others even camouflaged behind huge sets. The location of these factories is top secret." Could be propaganda though. I doubt we'll really know until after the war ends. [1] https://archive.md/uZLFi#selection-999.23-999.155 https://archive.md/uZLFi#selection-999.23-999.155 ( https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2024/05/09/663b9bc3fdddff60438b459d.html https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2024/05/09/663b9bc3fddd... )
  - rtkwe 2y ago
    Yeah, the Russia-Ukraine war has been an odd one. It's hard to tell how much of that is modern air defenses making it tough to do deep strikes reliably, holding back for diplomatic/strategic reasons, or the Russian armed forces being a paper bear. Of those I tend to credit modern defenses and the paper bear combo more highly.

by Brybry 2y ago

rtkwe 2y ago

It's easier to do with dedicated military facilities than it is with factories and particularly in the Chinese silo examples they can't hide they're building something there just disguising what it's purpose is. It's a lot harder to do that with a factory where you need to fake a lot more signs of life, material deliveries, workers, finished products rolling off the line. I'm not saying decoys as an entire category are dead just that disguising factories like the US did in WW2 is unlikely to work well in the modern world. We're way past the age where you can hide a whole huge factory. Imagery is just too good to hide something that large with that much activity around it.

Brybry 2y ago
Ukraine's still building stuff somehow though. Like here's a Sep 2024 source[1] (but anonymous) that says while some factories are underground others are "at ground level, but duplicated and others even camouflaged behind huge sets. The location of these factories is top secret." Could be propaganda though. I doubt we'll really know until after the war ends. [1] https://archive.md/uZLFi#selection-999.23-999.155 https://archive.md/uZLFi#selection-999.23-999.155 ( https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2024/05/09/663b9bc3fdddff60438b459d.html https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2024/05/09/663b9bc3fddd... )
- rtkwe 2y ago
  Yeah, the Russia-Ukraine war has been an odd one. It's hard to tell how much of that is modern air defenses making it tough to do deep strikes reliably, holding back for diplomatic/strategic reasons, or the Russian armed forces being a paper bear. Of those I tend to credit modern defenses and the paper bear combo more highly.