7 ms·

Can re-appaer again. If Russia won't be stopped, a war with Russia and Chine will be imminent.

rtkwe 2y ago
They'll be vastly less effective in the age of precision guided bombs and missiles. The locations of the existing factories are already well known and not disguised and China/Russia can use their satellites to find any new built factories as well.
- 7952 2y ago
  Yes, even if it looks natural on visible light bands it won't on infrared or synthetic apeture radar imagery.
  - dylan604 2y ago
    Infrared can be fooled with low tech fire pits or more high tech infrared lamps
  - SoftTalker 2y ago
    I assumed the latest weapons are GPS guided, and just zero in on a long/lat coordinate. Though I guess that would be vulnerable to jamming/deception so maybe they do use visual guidance systems.
    - alephxyz 2y ago
      Strategic and cruise missiles are meant to operate in doomsday scenarios without active guidance and instead use a combination of inertial navigation, celestial navigation and terrain matching.
    - mschuster91 2y ago
      > I assumed the latest weapons are GPS guided, and just zero in on a long/lat coordinate Germany's Taurus for example is muuuuch more than that. It uses a sensor fusion model - GPS of course, but also inertial measurement, planetary volume modules (i.e. terrain data) and imagery. It's essentially designed to be a first-response system, able to strike Russia right where we want it, and Russia (in theory) should not be able to counteract it. That's also, no matter if I like it or not, one of the reasons why we didn't deliver Taurus. For it to work, we'd either have to hand Ukraine the systems and data required to program the missiles (which we don't want because the risk is very high that someone sneaks the stuff off to Russia) or we'd have to send our own troops to do the programming (which we don't want because obvious reasons - remember, Germany doesn't have an equivalent to US SAC/SOG). And on top of that comes that we don't want to risk Russia finding out just how well it works and to maybe even develop countermeasures.
- ponector 2y ago
  Jamming makes precision guided munition not so precise. For example Excalibur shells are useless in Ukraine.
  - rtkwe 2y ago
    It hasn't stopped threats like ATACMS or other precision munitions. The larger the munition the better the guidance stands up to interference up to cruise missiles that can use terrain following or inertial guidance to strike quite precisely without needing GPS at all.
  - carabiner 2y ago
    You don't even need guided bombs. Dumb bomb targeting is highly accurate today. The computer will show on the HUD the impact point of the bomb based on aircraft velocity, altitude, drag characteristics of the bomb etc.
- Brybry 2y ago
  Ukraine and Russia both actively use wooden, inflatable, and painted decoys in the current war. [1][2] China's ICBM silo fields are almost certainly a strategy of mixed decoys and real silos. [3][4] China builds new silos under inflatable domes so you can't easily tell via satellite. [5] Decoys and camouflage are very much so still a thing. I don't think they would persist if they were not cost effective. [1] https://read.bradyafrick.com/p/russia-adds-decoy-aircraft-to-air https://read.bradyafrick.com/p/russia-adds-decoy-aircraft-to... [2] https://iari.site/2024/10/13/the-strategic-role-of-decoys-in-modern-warfare-the-conflict-in-ukraine/ https://iari.site/2024/10/13/the-strategic-role-of-decoys-in... [3] https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1212340/chinese-icbm-silos/ https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1212340/chinese-icbm... [4] https://fas.org/publication/a-closer-look-at-chinas-missile-silo-construction/ https://fas.org/publication/a-closer-look-at-chinas-missile-... [5] https://fas.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/OrdosSilos-2002x881.jpg https://fas.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/OrdosSilos-2002x8...
  - rtkwe 2y ago
    It's easier to do with dedicated military facilities than it is with factories and particularly in the Chinese silo examples they can't hide they're building something there just disguising what it's purpose is. It's a lot harder to do that with a factory where you need to fake a lot more signs of life, material deliveries, workers, finished products rolling off the line. I'm not saying decoys as an entire category are dead just that disguising factories like the US did in WW2 is unlikely to work well in the modern world. We're way past the age where you can hide a whole huge factory. Imagery is just too good to hide something that large with that much activity around it.
    - Brybry 2y ago
      Ukraine's still building stuff somehow though. Like here's a Sep 2024 source[1] (but anonymous) that says while some factories are underground others are "at ground level, but duplicated and others even camouflaged behind huge sets. The location of these factories is top secret." Could be propaganda though. I doubt we'll really know until after the war ends. [1] https://archive.md/uZLFi#selection-999.23-999.155 https://archive.md/uZLFi#selection-999.23-999.155 ( https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2024/05/09/663b9bc3fdddff60438b459d.html https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2024/05/09/663b9bc3fddd... )
- ashoeafoot 2y ago
  Next stage thus? built standardized stockpiles, store in the middle of nowhere in containers, assemble on route.
- Dalewyn 2y ago
  It has been demonstrated time and time again that the simplest implements of war are always the most effective.
  - glitchc 2y ago
    This is a silly statement given that guns beat arrows and arrows beat rocks. I believe you meant something more specific. What we are seeing in Ukraine is a war of attrition.
  - rtkwe 2y ago
    Has it? Small drones be they for surveillance, dropping munitions or for suicide runs seem like they've been quite effective in Ukraine.
    - astrodust 2y ago
      Ukraine has also been vigilant in making hyper-realistic wooden replicas of various types of equipment, some even including heating elements in them so they look correct on thermal cameras. If you've seen how glitchy/blurry the drone footage can get with jamming, it'd be easy to be fooled by a decoy.
  - talldayo 2y ago
    You'd think that. One of the biggest takeaways from WWI (and undeniable takeaways of WWII) is that complex weapons work better. Chemical attacks could kill thousands of men without risking a single life on the behalf of the attackers. Tanks and armored vehicles were protected from any of the simple implements that infantry could carry, and forced a complete rethinking of battlefield strategy. The concept of air superiority began to define who advanced on the ground, and the modernization of naval forces revolutionized the tactics used in standoff warfare. It's comforting to repeat humanist aphorisms like "war never changes" but the reality of the matter is that 100,000 people had never died so quickly in any age before the atom bomb.
immibis 2y ago
There will be no war between Russia and the USA for the next four years since the USA will just give Russia whatever it wants.
- mjevans 2y ago
  I'm hopeful that 'business' will prevail and #47 goes merchant of death mode to sell to those we'd like to see remain countries.
- gedy 2y ago
  Putin made all his moves against Ukraine during Obama/Biden and Biden/Harris terms and was mostly unchecked (especially Crimea) so I've never understood this opinion.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - immibis 2y ago
    The terms when the USA didn't just give Russia whatever it wanted.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
dylan604 2y ago
Here's hoping Russia and/or China never launched any satellites to image the area before your re-appearing camo is installed.
- krisoft 2y ago
  That plus that they haven’t heard of google maps.
krisoft 2y ago
Zero chance. This is what nukes are for. If China or Russia is hitting millitary strategical targets in the continental USA they will be nuked. If they can still hit the USA after that with vision guided weapons then somehow all legs of the triad has failed. There is no possible scenairo where it would make sense to camuflage these factories again.
- csomar 2y ago
  Both countries have nukes and methods to deliver these nukes. Nuking China will also nuke the USA. There is a reason why Russia can't use their current nuclear weapons and it's not humanity.
  - krisoft 2y ago
    I read all your sentences and agree with them. Still I can't see how that changes my conclusion. The point of putting up disguises like these is that you think it is possible that the enemy flies over the target with something which uses visual piloting (a crewed bomber, or a camera guided cruise missile or similar). A strike like that at the continental US at a military target like the Boeing assembly halls would either trigger an overwhelming conventional response (against foes without nukes) or would trigger a nuclear attack (against foes with nukes). The day the USA can't or won't do one of those responses is the day it lost the war. You might as well raise the flag of the attackers over the white house because it is over. (Which just to be clear is just a different way to say that it won't happen. The USA will strike back. Even if for some reason it is much diminished and literally fractured and cornered.) And since the foes also know this they won't send bombers against the Boeing factories. Because of the consequences that would entail.

They'll be vastly less effective in the age of precision guided bombs and missiles. The locations of the existing factories are already well known and not disguised and China/Russia can use their satellites to find any new built factories as well.

7952 2y ago
Yes, even if it looks natural on visible light bands it won't on infrared or synthetic apeture radar imagery.
- dylan604 2y ago
  Infrared can be fooled with low tech fire pits or more high tech infrared lamps
- SoftTalker 2y ago
  I assumed the latest weapons are GPS guided, and just zero in on a long/lat coordinate. Though I guess that would be vulnerable to jamming/deception so maybe they do use visual guidance systems.
  - alephxyz 2y ago
    Strategic and cruise missiles are meant to operate in doomsday scenarios without active guidance and instead use a combination of inertial navigation, celestial navigation and terrain matching.
  - mschuster91 2y ago
    > I assumed the latest weapons are GPS guided, and just zero in on a long/lat coordinate Germany's Taurus for example is muuuuch more than that. It uses a sensor fusion model - GPS of course, but also inertial measurement, planetary volume modules (i.e. terrain data) and imagery. It's essentially designed to be a first-response system, able to strike Russia right where we want it, and Russia (in theory) should not be able to counteract it. That's also, no matter if I like it or not, one of the reasons why we didn't deliver Taurus. For it to work, we'd either have to hand Ukraine the systems and data required to program the missiles (which we don't want because the risk is very high that someone sneaks the stuff off to Russia) or we'd have to send our own troops to do the programming (which we don't want because obvious reasons - remember, Germany doesn't have an equivalent to US SAC/SOG). And on top of that comes that we don't want to risk Russia finding out just how well it works and to maybe even develop countermeasures.
ponector 2y ago
Jamming makes precision guided munition not so precise. For example Excalibur shells are useless in Ukraine.
- rtkwe 2y ago
  It hasn't stopped threats like ATACMS or other precision munitions. The larger the munition the better the guidance stands up to interference up to cruise missiles that can use terrain following or inertial guidance to strike quite precisely without needing GPS at all.
- carabiner 2y ago
  You don't even need guided bombs. Dumb bomb targeting is highly accurate today. The computer will show on the HUD the impact point of the bomb based on aircraft velocity, altitude, drag characteristics of the bomb etc.
Brybry 2y ago
Ukraine and Russia both actively use wooden, inflatable, and painted decoys in the current war. [1][2] China's ICBM silo fields are almost certainly a strategy of mixed decoys and real silos. [3][4] China builds new silos under inflatable domes so you can't easily tell via satellite. [5] Decoys and camouflage are very much so still a thing. I don't think they would persist if they were not cost effective. [1] https://read.bradyafrick.com/p/russia-adds-decoy-aircraft-to-air https://read.bradyafrick.com/p/russia-adds-decoy-aircraft-to... [2] https://iari.site/2024/10/13/the-strategic-role-of-decoys-in-modern-warfare-the-conflict-in-ukraine/ https://iari.site/2024/10/13/the-strategic-role-of-decoys-in... [3] https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1212340/chinese-icbm-silos/ https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1212340/chinese-icbm... [4] https://fas.org/publication/a-closer-look-at-chinas-missile-silo-construction/ https://fas.org/publication/a-closer-look-at-chinas-missile-... [5] https://fas.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/OrdosSilos-2002x881.jpg https://fas.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/OrdosSilos-2002x8...
- rtkwe 2y ago
  It's easier to do with dedicated military facilities than it is with factories and particularly in the Chinese silo examples they can't hide they're building something there just disguising what it's purpose is. It's a lot harder to do that with a factory where you need to fake a lot more signs of life, material deliveries, workers, finished products rolling off the line. I'm not saying decoys as an entire category are dead just that disguising factories like the US did in WW2 is unlikely to work well in the modern world. We're way past the age where you can hide a whole huge factory. Imagery is just too good to hide something that large with that much activity around it.
  - Brybry 2y ago
    Ukraine's still building stuff somehow though. Like here's a Sep 2024 source[1] (but anonymous) that says while some factories are underground others are "at ground level, but duplicated and others even camouflaged behind huge sets. The location of these factories is top secret." Could be propaganda though. I doubt we'll really know until after the war ends. [1] https://archive.md/uZLFi#selection-999.23-999.155 https://archive.md/uZLFi#selection-999.23-999.155 ( https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2024/05/09/663b9bc3fdddff60438b459d.html https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2024/05/09/663b9bc3fddd... )
ashoeafoot 2y ago
Next stage thus? built standardized stockpiles, store in the middle of nowhere in containers, assemble on route.
Dalewyn 2y ago
It has been demonstrated time and time again that the simplest implements of war are always the most effective.
- glitchc 2y ago
  This is a silly statement given that guns beat arrows and arrows beat rocks. I believe you meant something more specific. What we are seeing in Ukraine is a war of attrition.
- rtkwe 2y ago
  Has it? Small drones be they for surveillance, dropping munitions or for suicide runs seem like they've been quite effective in Ukraine.
  - astrodust 2y ago
    Ukraine has also been vigilant in making hyper-realistic wooden replicas of various types of equipment, some even including heating elements in them so they look correct on thermal cameras. If you've seen how glitchy/blurry the drone footage can get with jamming, it'd be easy to be fooled by a decoy.
- talldayo 2y ago
  You'd think that. One of the biggest takeaways from WWI (and undeniable takeaways of WWII) is that complex weapons work better. Chemical attacks could kill thousands of men without risking a single life on the behalf of the attackers. Tanks and armored vehicles were protected from any of the simple implements that infantry could carry, and forced a complete rethinking of battlefield strategy. The concept of air superiority began to define who advanced on the ground, and the modernization of naval forces revolutionized the tactics used in standoff warfare. It's comforting to repeat humanist aphorisms like "war never changes" but the reality of the matter is that 100,000 people had never died so quickly in any age before the atom bomb.

immibis 2y ago

There will be no war between Russia and the USA for the next four years since the USA will just give Russia whatever it wants.

mjevans 2y ago
I'm hopeful that 'business' will prevail and #47 goes merchant of death mode to sell to those we'd like to see remain countries.
gedy 2y ago
Putin made all his moves against Ukraine during Obama/Biden and Biden/Harris terms and was mostly unchecked (especially Crimea) so I've never understood this opinion.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- immibis 2y ago
  The terms when the USA didn't just give Russia whatever it wanted.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

dylan604 2y ago

Here's hoping Russia and/or China never launched any satellites to image the area before your re-appearing camo is installed.

krisoft 2y ago
That plus that they haven’t heard of google maps.

krisoft 2y ago

Zero chance. This is what nukes are for. If China or Russia is hitting millitary strategical targets in the continental USA they will be nuked. If they can still hit the USA after that with vision guided weapons then somehow all legs of the triad has failed. There is no possible scenairo where it would make sense to camuflage these factories again.

csomar 2y ago
Both countries have nukes and methods to deliver these nukes. Nuking China will also nuke the USA. There is a reason why Russia can't use their current nuclear weapons and it's not humanity.
- krisoft 2y ago
  I read all your sentences and agree with them. Still I can't see how that changes my conclusion. The point of putting up disguises like these is that you think it is possible that the enemy flies over the target with something which uses visual piloting (a crewed bomber, or a camera guided cruise missile or similar). A strike like that at the continental US at a military target like the Boeing assembly halls would either trigger an overwhelming conventional response (against foes without nukes) or would trigger a nuclear attack (against foes with nukes). The day the USA can't or won't do one of those responses is the day it lost the war. You might as well raise the flag of the attackers over the white house because it is over. (Which just to be clear is just a different way to say that it won't happen. The USA will strike back. Even if for some reason it is much diminished and literally fractured and cornered.) And since the foes also know this they won't send bombers against the Boeing factories. Because of the consequences that would entail.