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Very likely, yes. And before that, should Trump stop helping Ukraine, that could be seen by China as a sign that they can do what they want with Taiwan, just as

Very likely, yes. And before that, should Trump stop helping Ukraine, that could be seen by China as a sign that they can do what they want with Taiwan, just as withdrawing from Afghanistan was probably seen by Putin as being given carte blanche wrt invading Ukraine.

Urahandystar 2y ago
Withdrawing from Afganistan had no impact on Putins decision to invade Ukraine. It was planned years in advance but Pompeo's decision to invite them into Nato was the trigger that made it inevitable.
- hagbard_c 2y ago
  It is more likely that Biden's gaffe in saying that a 'moderate incursion' into Ukraine would not lead to repercussions [1] in combination with the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan gave Putin the incentive to invade. The push by some [2 - do notice the date, 2008] to get Ukraine to join NATO most likely did play a role in some way but then again there was a safety guarantee in place for Ukraine in return for them turning over soviet nuclear weaponry to Russia. [1] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/01/20/white-house-scrambles-clean-joe-biden-gaffe-ukraine/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/01/20/white-hous... [2] https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/statement-from-senator-hillary-clinton-ukrainian-membership-nato https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/statement-from-sen...
  - aguaviva 2y ago
    Except in regard to the first trigger (Biden's gaffe) -- there's just not much logic there, being as it came rather late in the game (Jan 2022), whereas the decision to invade had essentially been made several months back (before Putin started moving his 170k troops into place). But we can definitely see the precipitous withdrawal from Afghanistan as being a much greater factor.
    - hagbard_c 2y ago
      One thing is clear above all: countries which have nuclear weapons or the capacity to build them do well to never, ever give up that capacity no matter which promises are made in return for such a move. This does not bode well for attempts at non-proliferation and it is likely that the number of 'nuclear powers' will only grow, not diminish. If Ukraine had not given up its nukes it is doubtful whether Russia would have invaded, even if it remains unclear whether Ukraine could actually have used the devices.
- aguaviva 2y ago
  It was planned years in advance but Pompeo's decision to invite them into Nato was the trigger that made it inevitable. Except there was no such decision, it isn't Pompeo's to make anyway, and no such invitation to Ukraine has ever been offered.
screye 2y ago
Ukraine was a show of power from the US. Economically, it's irrelevant. Taiwan has the entire semiconductor industry by the neck. Big difference. If TSMC wasn't essential, the definitely would not intervene in an official capacity. TSMC is the only thing stopping a PRC China invasion. There are no ifs and buts here. It's clear as day.

Urahandystar 2y ago

Withdrawing from Afganistan had no impact on Putins decision to invade Ukraine. It was planned years in advance but Pompeo's decision to invite them into Nato was the trigger that made it inevitable.

hagbard_c 2y ago
It is more likely that Biden's gaffe in saying that a 'moderate incursion' into Ukraine would not lead to repercussions [1] in combination with the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan gave Putin the incentive to invade. The push by some [2 - do notice the date, 2008] to get Ukraine to join NATO most likely did play a role in some way but then again there was a safety guarantee in place for Ukraine in return for them turning over soviet nuclear weaponry to Russia. [1] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/01/20/white-house-scrambles-clean-joe-biden-gaffe-ukraine/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/01/20/white-hous... [2] https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/statement-from-senator-hillary-clinton-ukrainian-membership-nato https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/statement-from-sen...
- aguaviva 2y ago
  Except in regard to the first trigger (Biden's gaffe) -- there's just not much logic there, being as it came rather late in the game (Jan 2022), whereas the decision to invade had essentially been made several months back (before Putin started moving his 170k troops into place). But we can definitely see the precipitous withdrawal from Afghanistan as being a much greater factor.
  - hagbard_c 2y ago
    One thing is clear above all: countries which have nuclear weapons or the capacity to build them do well to never, ever give up that capacity no matter which promises are made in return for such a move. This does not bode well for attempts at non-proliferation and it is likely that the number of 'nuclear powers' will only grow, not diminish. If Ukraine had not given up its nukes it is doubtful whether Russia would have invaded, even if it remains unclear whether Ukraine could actually have used the devices.
aguaviva 2y ago
It was planned years in advance but Pompeo's decision to invite them into Nato was the trigger that made it inevitable. Except there was no such decision, it isn't Pompeo's to make anyway, and no such invitation to Ukraine has ever been offered.

screye 2y ago

Ukraine was a show of power from the US. Economically, it's irrelevant. Taiwan has the entire semiconductor industry by the neck. Big difference. If TSMC wasn't essential, the definitely would not intervene in an official capacity. TSMC is the only thing stopping a PRC China invasion. There are no ifs and buts here. It's clear as day.