3 ms·

Very interesting, so it's the US without access to the cutting edge technology now? From official US standpoint, Taiwan is China therefore in a sense China is c

by mrtksn 2y ago

Very interesting, so it's the US without access to the cutting edge technology now? From official US standpoint, Taiwan is China therefore in a sense China is cutting US off. Well of course the reality is more intricate, probably this is just Taiwan playing its hands to secure US guarantees but if China ends up taking Taiwan the end result will be the same. We live in really interesting times. Hope this CHIP act stuff and the re-industrialization of US works out.

Barrin92 2y ago
>so it's the US without access to the cutting edge technology now? no, but the newest cutting edge chips can't be manufactured in Arizona right now. US companies can still purchase them. It's a pretty obvious hedge against geopolitical insecurity and support from the US to keep the most advanced manufacturing capacity in Taiwan at any given time.
- mrtksn 2y ago
  It can be one tariff away from not letting US companies purchase them(after Chinese takeover or Chinese bullying).
  - cma 2y ago
    The US did the early EUV research (EUV LLC public private partnership), and acquired security veto power over ASML exports when transferring their portion of the tech to them, which TSMC can't do anything without. Though I don't know that that lasts if we pull out of NATO...
    - mrtksn 2y ago
      Right, currently I'm in Turkey and Turks like to brag about the civilizations who lived here and did the early research on maths, physics and medical sciences. However, ASML is a EU company and at this very moment Trump is threatening EU and he said that EU is just as bad as China and will punish the Europeans. What if the relations between US and EU sour to the point that US is cut off from EUV machines and the Europeans cut a deal with Russia and China instead and get the energy and technology in EU? Anti-American forces are on rise in Europe. Even if US manages to get everything it needs, it will be ~300M people and if Trump manages to alienate enough partners that will be total market size for the fabs and EUV tech as it wouldn't be the only one in town doing it. In these extremely large scale investment stuff, you need to be serving billions of people to make economical sense. Fabs in US with no access to the entire globe is a worse position than Fabs in China with no access to the entire globe simply by the 5x the population difference and with US adopting protectionist stance it doesn't seem like it would be China who doesn't have access to the global markets.
      - user90131313 2y ago
        EU and USA are Nato partners and also part of entire western. China and others are not.
        mrtksn 2y ago
        See, the new president-elect doesn't like Nato and already considered leaving it in his previous turn. US also demonstrated reluctance to fulfill its commitment. The established world order is a bust, ships are going around Africa because NATO is unable to secure passage through the Suez canal.
      - talldayo 2y ago
        > What if the relations between US and EU sour to the point that US is cut off from EUV machines and the Europeans cut a deal with Russia and China instead That will not happen. I am an American, I greatly dislike Trump, but fundamentally you have to understand that if Taiwan is a stable enough country to sell EUV machines to, America's money is good enough as well. There is just no chance the EU plays this card, even with NATO threatened as a whole - selling EUV to Russia and China would be actual industry suicide with no tangible benefits besides the scorched-earth policy.
tester756 2y ago
tbf it aint the news It was known for some longer peroid of time that TSMC is not going to do leading edge node outside the Taiwan. They want the "Silicon Shield" after all This announcement seems to be related more to Trump than anything else.
- dragonelite 2y ago
  But without customers(US big tech) who will buy 2nm chips, Huawei is not allowed. So im fully convinced that TSMC will become ASMC within a decade. The US has to much levers they can pull, the only buyers, chemicals, can export control key parts of ASML EUV machine, etc.
  - tester756 2y ago
    Why US big tech wouldnt buy it? It is just that manufacturing has to be on Taiwan's soil.
- KeplerBoy 2y ago
  There is simply no way the west will always rely on fabs so close to mainland China. The US might be able to defend Taiwan from being conquered, but nobody can protect the fabs from being shelled.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - tester756 2y ago
    Of course Thats why US & EU Chips Act are a thing and Intel is building fabs.
  - makeitdouble 2y ago
    > There is simply no way the west will always rely [...] This is the "on an infinite timescale" argument I think. It's been decades now that we rely on Taiwan, and the estimate give a few more decades to catch up if we start getting real serious about it right now, assuming Taiwan doesn't keep its lead. So yes, eventually things might change. But that won't be tomorrow, or the day after.
InsideOutSanta 2y ago
This is Taiwan forcing the US to protect it from China. According to Taiwan, its local TSMC factories is poison-pilled. If China invades, all of ASML's tech gets remote-disabled. Since the US economy strongly depends on these chips, they have no choice but to stand by Taiwan. If, on the other hand, the US has the capability to make these chips on their own, that fundamentally changes the situation.
- DeathArrow 2y ago
  > If, on the other hand, the US has the capability to make these chips on their own, that fundamentally changes the situation. The US can fab 2nm if they buy the machines from ASML.
  - Arnt 2y ago
    You can run 100m in nine seconds if you buy the shoes from Nike.
  - ajb257 2y ago
    Just because you can buy the tools doesn't mean you know how to use them.
    - agumonkey 2y ago
      How difficult would it be to poach TSMC employees ? (just asking)
  - nicoburns 2y ago
    The US (intel) does buy ASML machines. And they probably will eventually get to 2nm chips, but they're currently a yesrs behind TSMC.
- mrtksn 2y ago
  I get that but the US already lost most of its credibility in Ukraine. Factories might be poison pilled but that's not human physiology and the analogy doesn't stand when China can simply buy new ASML machines in the near future as the EU being threatened by Trump already.

by mrtksn 2y ago

Barrin92 2y ago

>so it's the US without access to the cutting edge technology now? no, but the newest cutting edge chips can't be manufactured in Arizona right now. US companies can still purchase them. It's a pretty obvious hedge against geopolitical insecurity and support from the US to keep the most advanced manufacturing capacity in Taiwan at any given time.

mrtksn 2y ago
It can be one tariff away from not letting US companies purchase them(after Chinese takeover or Chinese bullying).
- cma 2y ago
  The US did the early EUV research (EUV LLC public private partnership), and acquired security veto power over ASML exports when transferring their portion of the tech to them, which TSMC can't do anything without. Though I don't know that that lasts if we pull out of NATO...
  - mrtksn 2y ago
    Right, currently I'm in Turkey and Turks like to brag about the civilizations who lived here and did the early research on maths, physics and medical sciences. However, ASML is a EU company and at this very moment Trump is threatening EU and he said that EU is just as bad as China and will punish the Europeans. What if the relations between US and EU sour to the point that US is cut off from EUV machines and the Europeans cut a deal with Russia and China instead and get the energy and technology in EU? Anti-American forces are on rise in Europe. Even if US manages to get everything it needs, it will be ~300M people and if Trump manages to alienate enough partners that will be total market size for the fabs and EUV tech as it wouldn't be the only one in town doing it. In these extremely large scale investment stuff, you need to be serving billions of people to make economical sense. Fabs in US with no access to the entire globe is a worse position than Fabs in China with no access to the entire globe simply by the 5x the population difference and with US adopting protectionist stance it doesn't seem like it would be China who doesn't have access to the global markets.
    - user90131313 2y ago
      EU and USA are Nato partners and also part of entire western. China and others are not.
      - mrtksn 2y ago
        See, the new president-elect doesn't like Nato and already considered leaving it in his previous turn. US also demonstrated reluctance to fulfill its commitment. The established world order is a bust, ships are going around Africa because NATO is unable to secure passage through the Suez canal.
    - talldayo 2y ago
      > What if the relations between US and EU sour to the point that US is cut off from EUV machines and the Europeans cut a deal with Russia and China instead That will not happen. I am an American, I greatly dislike Trump, but fundamentally you have to understand that if Taiwan is a stable enough country to sell EUV machines to, America's money is good enough as well. There is just no chance the EU plays this card, even with NATO threatened as a whole - selling EUV to Russia and China would be actual industry suicide with no tangible benefits besides the scorched-earth policy.

tester756 2y ago

tbf it aint the news It was known for some longer peroid of time that TSMC is not going to do leading edge node outside the Taiwan. They want the "Silicon Shield" after all This announcement seems to be related more to Trump than anything else.

dragonelite 2y ago
But without customers(US big tech) who will buy 2nm chips, Huawei is not allowed. So im fully convinced that TSMC will become ASMC within a decade. The US has to much levers they can pull, the only buyers, chemicals, can export control key parts of ASML EUV machine, etc.
- tester756 2y ago
  Why US big tech wouldnt buy it? It is just that manufacturing has to be on Taiwan's soil.
KeplerBoy 2y ago
There is simply no way the west will always rely on fabs so close to mainland China. The US might be able to defend Taiwan from being conquered, but nobody can protect the fabs from being shelled.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- tester756 2y ago
  Of course Thats why US & EU Chips Act are a thing and Intel is building fabs.
- makeitdouble 2y ago
  > There is simply no way the west will always rely [...] This is the "on an infinite timescale" argument I think. It's been decades now that we rely on Taiwan, and the estimate give a few more decades to catch up if we start getting real serious about it right now, assuming Taiwan doesn't keep its lead. So yes, eventually things might change. But that won't be tomorrow, or the day after.

InsideOutSanta 2y ago

This is Taiwan forcing the US to protect it from China. According to Taiwan, its local TSMC factories is poison-pilled. If China invades, all of ASML's tech gets remote-disabled. Since the US economy strongly depends on these chips, they have no choice but to stand by Taiwan. If, on the other hand, the US has the capability to make these chips on their own, that fundamentally changes the situation.

DeathArrow 2y ago
> If, on the other hand, the US has the capability to make these chips on their own, that fundamentally changes the situation. The US can fab 2nm if they buy the machines from ASML.
- Arnt 2y ago
  You can run 100m in nine seconds if you buy the shoes from Nike.
- ajb257 2y ago
  Just because you can buy the tools doesn't mean you know how to use them.
  - agumonkey 2y ago
    How difficult would it be to poach TSMC employees ? (just asking)
- nicoburns 2y ago
  The US (intel) does buy ASML machines. And they probably will eventually get to 2nm chips, but they're currently a yesrs behind TSMC.
mrtksn 2y ago
I get that but the US already lost most of its credibility in Ukraine. Factories might be poison pilled but that's not human physiology and the analogy doesn't stand when China can simply buy new ASML machines in the near future as the EU being threatened by Trump already.