10 ms·

Peak population may be coming sooner than we think

29 points by maxilevi 2y ago

ttyprintk 2y ago
https://archive.ph/m9QoN https://archive.ph/m9QoN
brtkdotse 2y ago
I feel that people underestimate the impact of this. The current world economy is built on the assumption that the population pyramid is a pyramid, if there’s a glut in the influx of healthy new citizens a whole slew of supply chains will collapse.
- ido 2y ago
  On the demand side - but how would automation/AI/robotics impact the supply/production side (i.e. will we replace the unborn would-be new workers with new robots)?
  - rhelz 2y ago
    Fortunately, there is no limit to what we want :-) According to my high-school econ teacher, who defined economics as the art of satisfying our unlimited desires with limited resources.
  - llamaimperative 2y ago
    They would impact it by siphoning greater proportions of economic surplus to the owners of said robots, i.e. the wealthy.
- rhelz 2y ago
  Whole slews of supply chains collapse all the time. Just look at some rust-belt factories. Or take a look at some 80's computer magazines, where there are an endless number of software companies selling pascal and lisp compilers, BBS software, etc. Not to mention floppy disc drives and CD-ROM drives.
  - llamaimperative 2y ago
    Do you actually not see the difference between widespread sector-agnostic labor disruption and technologies going obsolete? Wondering if this is an actual misunderstanding or you're just pretending.
    - rhelz 2y ago
      // wondering // I never argue in bad faith. I am unaware of any data which show that the economic disruptions do to demographic issues is going to be worse than the economic disruptions due to new tech replacing old. I also am unaware of any actual data which says that the population is going to shrink faster than productivity increases.
- barbequeer 2y ago
  Do you think this is a bad thing?
  - Arnt 2y ago
    A bad estimate is always somehow bad. The US is in the news now. It has something like five million illegal immigrants that work for next to nothing. Losing that source of cheap labour would be a wrenching change.
    - namaria 2y ago
      I have a hunch that mass deportations have an accelerationist origin. If Heritage Foundation ultimately thinks depopulation and mass automation are tenable and on their way, a supply shock in the labor market could spark some change. Not unlike the Death Plague contributed to the rise of wealthy craftsman and merchant class.
    - toomuchtodo 2y ago
      11 million, and it costs ~$80B to deport every million.
      - Arnt 2y ago
        11… wow… is that everyone or just the ones that work legalish fulltime jobs?
        toomuchtodo 2y ago
        https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/07/22/what-we-know-about-unauthorized-immigrants-living-in-the-us/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/07/22/what-we-k...
        Arnt 2y ago
        Eight million in the labour force, that's quite a number.
- nine_zeros 2y ago
  > The current world economy is built on the assumption that the population pyramid is a pyramid And this is an economic system problem. The solution to an economic problem is not more people The solution to an economic problem is revamping the economic system aka more share of wealth going to average people than merely the wealthy sitting on compounding growth.
- randomdata 2y ago
  > I feel that people underestimate the impact of this. Do they? As a non-American just watching in, I got the impression that Trump won on this very issue, promising that "Christian family values" would bring about a reversal. That was certainly the message, when taken at face value (I understand many believe that it is trying to mask other motives), that made it out of the USA, at least. That suggests to me that the concern is there. I expect most people do understand the impact, but, much like climate change, don't know how to actually bring about the change that is needed without infringing on the life they want to live.
  - zifpanachr23 2y ago
    That's highly debatable. It's one of several issues that I think contributed to his win. And it's unclear to me that he is really very serious about the whole family values thing in particular. If you were a single issue voter on that particular issue, he was the obvious choice, but I don't think that issue is something on most people's minds or responsible for a significant proportion of single issue voters that could have been swayed to Trump. Certainly, I think the rabid anti-natalism among the Democratic party is probably more responsible for a shift of any of said voters concerned about demographics than any declared natalist position that Trump advanced. He really hasn't pushed policy any further in that way than would have been considered very normal 10 or 15 years ago. With the sole exception of some states being allowed to implement abortion bans (although the extent to which that is really a natalist policy I think is up for debate, I don't think the majority of pro life voters conceptualize it in that way or expect it to have a measurable demographic effect). Immigration and inflation and the cultural out of touchness of the opposing candidate all contributed to his win more than explicit fear about declining birth rates. That definitely contributes somewhat to the above fears, but it can't account for them entirely. I feel qualified to speak on this being from a conservative family and being much more willing to consider Trump than I think the majority of the HackerNews audience is. Also, I'm located in Texas, where my point of view is perhaps somewhere around the median on a left - right axis. I've never once heard birth rates brought up by family or friends as a reason somebody wanted to vote for Trump. That being said, it would make sense if they did, and it's something I'd be interested in, on account of being a little more wonky than most of my family and friends, and thinking it's a serious issue that is still being vastly under discussed.
rustcleaner 2y ago
Ha-ha, neoliberals can't replacement migration themselves out of this quagmire!
- llamaimperative 2y ago
  Quick! Make it medically unsafe and financially infeasible to raise children!
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
- Spivak 2y ago
  Replacement migration doesn't really have to do with the absolute numbers in the world but admitting immigrants from countries that have well above replacement rate. The world population is so large that the countries who desire increased population have a loooooong runway. The only problem, exemplified by the Windrush Generation in the UK, is the rampant racism towards the people who are immigrating to help you.
  - rustcleaner 2y ago
    The error is in the modern western belief that human breeds are equivalent modulo æsthetics and training. East Asia is a rising star as the west commits altruistic demographic suicide!
- mindslight 2y ago
  Yeah, and we might have stood a chance at constructive reform had so much of the population not fallen for the siren song of fascism, itself just a different lazy option offered by the elites. Same old story - they turn the screws of extraction as long as they can get away with it, and when the jig is up they contain the ire by making sure it's directed at superficially different individuals.
- 2y ago

29 points by maxilevi 2y ago

https://archive.ph/m9QoN https://archive.ph/m9QoN

I feel that people underestimate the impact of this. The current world economy is built on the assumption that the population pyramid is a pyramid, if there’s a glut in the influx of healthy new citizens a whole slew of supply chains will collapse.

ido 2y ago
On the demand side - but how would automation/AI/robotics impact the supply/production side (i.e. will we replace the unborn would-be new workers with new robots)?
- rhelz 2y ago
  Fortunately, there is no limit to what we want :-) According to my high-school econ teacher, who defined economics as the art of satisfying our unlimited desires with limited resources.
- llamaimperative 2y ago
  They would impact it by siphoning greater proportions of economic surplus to the owners of said robots, i.e. the wealthy.
rhelz 2y ago
Whole slews of supply chains collapse all the time. Just look at some rust-belt factories. Or take a look at some 80's computer magazines, where there are an endless number of software companies selling pascal and lisp compilers, BBS software, etc. Not to mention floppy disc drives and CD-ROM drives.
- llamaimperative 2y ago
  Do you actually not see the difference between widespread sector-agnostic labor disruption and technologies going obsolete? Wondering if this is an actual misunderstanding or you're just pretending.
  - rhelz 2y ago
    // wondering // I never argue in bad faith. I am unaware of any data which show that the economic disruptions do to demographic issues is going to be worse than the economic disruptions due to new tech replacing old. I also am unaware of any actual data which says that the population is going to shrink faster than productivity increases.
barbequeer 2y ago
Do you think this is a bad thing?
- Arnt 2y ago
  A bad estimate is always somehow bad. The US is in the news now. It has something like five million illegal immigrants that work for next to nothing. Losing that source of cheap labour would be a wrenching change.
  - namaria 2y ago
    I have a hunch that mass deportations have an accelerationist origin. If Heritage Foundation ultimately thinks depopulation and mass automation are tenable and on their way, a supply shock in the labor market could spark some change. Not unlike the Death Plague contributed to the rise of wealthy craftsman and merchant class.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    11 million, and it costs ~$80B to deport every million.
    - Arnt 2y ago
      11… wow… is that everyone or just the ones that work legalish fulltime jobs?
      - toomuchtodo 2y ago
        https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/07/22/what-we-know-about-unauthorized-immigrants-living-in-the-us/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/07/22/what-we-k...
        Arnt 2y ago
        Eight million in the labour force, that's quite a number.
nine_zeros 2y ago
> The current world economy is built on the assumption that the population pyramid is a pyramid And this is an economic system problem. The solution to an economic problem is not more people The solution to an economic problem is revamping the economic system aka more share of wealth going to average people than merely the wealthy sitting on compounding growth.
randomdata 2y ago
> I feel that people underestimate the impact of this. Do they? As a non-American just watching in, I got the impression that Trump won on this very issue, promising that "Christian family values" would bring about a reversal. That was certainly the message, when taken at face value (I understand many believe that it is trying to mask other motives), that made it out of the USA, at least. That suggests to me that the concern is there. I expect most people do understand the impact, but, much like climate change, don't know how to actually bring about the change that is needed without infringing on the life they want to live.
- zifpanachr23 2y ago
  That's highly debatable. It's one of several issues that I think contributed to his win. And it's unclear to me that he is really very serious about the whole family values thing in particular. If you were a single issue voter on that particular issue, he was the obvious choice, but I don't think that issue is something on most people's minds or responsible for a significant proportion of single issue voters that could have been swayed to Trump. Certainly, I think the rabid anti-natalism among the Democratic party is probably more responsible for a shift of any of said voters concerned about demographics than any declared natalist position that Trump advanced. He really hasn't pushed policy any further in that way than would have been considered very normal 10 or 15 years ago. With the sole exception of some states being allowed to implement abortion bans (although the extent to which that is really a natalist policy I think is up for debate, I don't think the majority of pro life voters conceptualize it in that way or expect it to have a measurable demographic effect). Immigration and inflation and the cultural out of touchness of the opposing candidate all contributed to his win more than explicit fear about declining birth rates. That definitely contributes somewhat to the above fears, but it can't account for them entirely. I feel qualified to speak on this being from a conservative family and being much more willing to consider Trump than I think the majority of the HackerNews audience is. Also, I'm located in Texas, where my point of view is perhaps somewhere around the median on a left - right axis. I've never once heard birth rates brought up by family or friends as a reason somebody wanted to vote for Trump. That being said, it would make sense if they did, and it's something I'd be interested in, on account of being a little more wonky than most of my family and friends, and thinking it's a serious issue that is still being vastly under discussed.

rustcleaner 2y ago

Ha-ha, neoliberals can't replacement migration themselves out of this quagmire!

llamaimperative 2y ago
Quick! Make it medically unsafe and financially infeasible to raise children!
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
Spivak 2y ago
Replacement migration doesn't really have to do with the absolute numbers in the world but admitting immigrants from countries that have well above replacement rate. The world population is so large that the countries who desire increased population have a loooooong runway. The only problem, exemplified by the Windrush Generation in the UK, is the rampant racism towards the people who are immigrating to help you.
- rustcleaner 2y ago
  The error is in the modern western belief that human breeds are equivalent modulo æsthetics and training. East Asia is a rising star as the west commits altruistic demographic suicide!
mindslight 2y ago
Yeah, and we might have stood a chance at constructive reform had so much of the population not fallen for the siren song of fascism, itself just a different lazy option offered by the elites. Same old story - they turn the screws of extraction as long as they can get away with it, and when the jig is up they contain the ire by making sure it's directed at superficially different individuals.
2y ago