3 ms·
People really love pointing at the first part of a logistic curve and go "behold! an exponential".
by andrepd 2y ago
People really love pointing at the first part of a logistic curve and go "behold! an exponential".
- bee_rider 2y agoI think (to give them the most generous read) they are just betting the halfway is still pretty far ahead. It is a different bet but IMO not an inherently ridiculous one like just misidentifying the shape of the thing; everything is a logistic curve, right? At least, everything that doesn’t blow up to infinity.
- TeMPOraL 2y agoDo they? My impression's been the opposite in the recent years - S-curve is a meme at this point, and is used as middlebrow dismissal. "All exponents in nature are s-curves" isn't really useful unless you can point at the limiting factors more precisely than "total energy in observable universe" or something. And you definitely need more than "did you know that exponents are really s-curves?" to even assume we're anywhere close to the inflection point.