4 ms·

To repeat this, there has to be a condition: "the oppressed can't bear it anymore." Economically, they are totally fine. They are just cattle who are fed and ex

To repeat this, there has to be a condition: "the oppressed can't bear it anymore." Economically, they are totally fine. They are just cattle who are fed and expected to behave as the owner requires. Ninety percent of Russians who didn't leave the country after 2021 have no incentive to be in any struggle; they are fed, they have work, they have a roof. The conditions that helped in 1917 were related to an economic disaster that the majority of the population experienced, and this was influenced by the 1st WW as well (which took a huge financial toll on the elites as well).

082349872349872 2y ago
The ca. 1924 Thermidorian limitations of the 1917 success were explained by Trotsky, whose subsequent literary career was thereupon cancelled, via an ice axe to the head. (I don't know to what degree Eric Blair worried about a similar fate, but we do see that after Animal Farm he moves to a remote island in Scotland, where presumably strangers would draw much greater attention to themselves than in London — and before returning to London for hospital marries a much younger spook*) * compare a line from Trotsky: "Rakovsky cites a curious remark of Babeuf to the effect that the degeneration of the new ruling stratum was helped along not a little by the former young ladies of the aristocracy toward whom the Jacobins were very friendly. ... A census of the wives of the ruling stratum in the Soviet Union would show a similar picture." https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.74858/page/n116/mode/1up https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.74858/page/n11...
- pk-protect-ai 2y ago
  Regardless, under current conditions there is no slim chance of rebellion in Russia. Massive conscription, on the other hand, and of course massive losses of the conscripted may cause an effect similar to 1917. However, the next government will be the same dictatorship as it always was in Russia, just slightly less aggressive toward neighbors.
  - 082349872349872 2y ago
    Do you think there might have been an opportunity during the 90-x to find a different ("Пеpемен, мы ждём пеpемен") attraction basin? (as it is, at least the Yeltsin jokes can, like Brezhnev jokes, be repurposed for US use 2025-2028...)
    - gradschoolfail 2y ago
      Slightly ot or maybe not, the educational inflection point was deep in the mid of the Cultural Revolution, which suggests that mass rustications are indeed situations to look into.. (The mechanism is probably that STEMish rusticants began to selforganize learning centres) COVID might have already started the process of Montanacation — elite diffusion to the hills —for the US (tho 2024 might actually reverse it) For russians so far, the conscripts are so far drawn disprop from the lows; the tops prefer to emigrate/stay out of the country, so wait a bit.
      - 082349872349872 2y ago
        > the conscripts are so far drawn disprop from the lows Is it still true that bit-wranglers are exempt from conscription? (in any event, one would hope that bitwrangling would pay well enough to provide anti-conscription cabbage?) > the tops prefer to emigrate Is that what Proshay elita![0] is about? In the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_emigration#Controversy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_emigration#Controversy department, I was impressed that Urgant[1] preferred losing his show over retraction. Lagniappe: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfhV0Sew0j4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfhV0Sew0j4 [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WQIW7aK5Bk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WQIW7aK5Bk [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njHNHbK9jDI#t=75s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njHNHbK9jDI#t=75s
      - 082349872349872 2y ago
        > (The mechanism is probably that STEMish rusticants began to selforganize learning centres) One would think widespread smartphones would help with this? Stuff that in my childhood was only available in university towns is now accessible to almost anyone with an aptitude and an interest... EDIT: Did Pioneer Houses ever do STEM? "What you've learned, teach a buddy" was a nice slogan...

082349872349872 2y ago

The ca. 1924 Thermidorian limitations of the 1917 success were explained by Trotsky, whose subsequent literary career was thereupon cancelled, via an ice axe to the head. (I don't know to what degree Eric Blair worried about a similar fate, but we do see that after Animal Farm he moves to a remote island in Scotland, where presumably strangers would draw much greater attention to themselves than in London — and before returning to London for hospital marries a much younger spook*) * compare a line from Trotsky: "Rakovsky cites a curious remark of Babeuf to the effect that the degeneration of the new ruling stratum was helped along not a little by the former young ladies of the aristocracy toward whom the Jacobins were very friendly. ... A census of the wives of the ruling stratum in the Soviet Union would show a similar picture." https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.74858/page/n116/mode/1up https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.74858/page/n11...

pk-protect-ai 2y ago
Regardless, under current conditions there is no slim chance of rebellion in Russia. Massive conscription, on the other hand, and of course massive losses of the conscripted may cause an effect similar to 1917. However, the next government will be the same dictatorship as it always was in Russia, just slightly less aggressive toward neighbors.
- 082349872349872 2y ago
  Do you think there might have been an opportunity during the 90-x to find a different ("Пеpемен, мы ждём пеpемен") attraction basin? (as it is, at least the Yeltsin jokes can, like Brezhnev jokes, be repurposed for US use 2025-2028...)
  - gradschoolfail 2y ago
    Slightly ot or maybe not, the educational inflection point was deep in the mid of the Cultural Revolution, which suggests that mass rustications are indeed situations to look into.. (The mechanism is probably that STEMish rusticants began to selforganize learning centres) COVID might have already started the process of Montanacation — elite diffusion to the hills —for the US (tho 2024 might actually reverse it) For russians so far, the conscripts are so far drawn disprop from the lows; the tops prefer to emigrate/stay out of the country, so wait a bit.
    - 082349872349872 2y ago
      > the conscripts are so far drawn disprop from the lows Is it still true that bit-wranglers are exempt from conscription? (in any event, one would hope that bitwrangling would pay well enough to provide anti-conscription cabbage?) > the tops prefer to emigrate Is that what Proshay elita![0] is about? In the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_emigration#Controversy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_emigration#Controversy department, I was impressed that Urgant[1] preferred losing his show over retraction. Lagniappe: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfhV0Sew0j4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SfhV0Sew0j4 [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WQIW7aK5Bk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WQIW7aK5Bk [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njHNHbK9jDI#t=75s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njHNHbK9jDI#t=75s
    - 082349872349872 2y ago
      > (The mechanism is probably that STEMish rusticants began to selforganize learning centres) One would think widespread smartphones would help with this? Stuff that in my childhood was only available in university towns is now accessible to almost anyone with an aptitude and an interest... EDIT: Did Pioneer Houses ever do STEM? "What you've learned, teach a buddy" was a nice slogan...