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Anyone who followed Deep Learning in the 2010s would have guessed the same thing. Big boom with vision models by adding a lot of layers and data, but eventually

by abc-1 2y ago

Anyone who followed Deep Learning in the 2010s would have guessed the same thing. Big boom with vision models by adding a lot of layers and data, but eventually there was diminishing returns there too. It’s unsurprising the same would happen with LLMs. I don’t know why people keep expecting anything other than a sigmoid curve. Perhaps they think it’s like Moore’s law but that’s simply not the case in this field. But that’s fine, LLMs as-is are amazing without being AGI.

mikae1 2y ago
> But that’s fine Perhaps not to those who invested based on promises of rapid eternal growth ending with AGI.
- 9dev 2y ago
  But that’s the way of the market; it rightfully punishes those with a flawed (or missing) understanding of a technology. And that’s a good thing.
  - born2web 2y ago
    I wish the market limits its punishment only to the groups you stated... usually the market tends to over-correct
smahs 2y ago
Leaving the distortions from inflated and unrealistic expectations (case in point: people expecting evolution of AGI somehow have not yet well defined what AGI is), I also think that in the mid-long run the current state of LLMs will bloom an entire economy for migration of legacy apps to have conversational APIs. The same investors will then have a new gold rush to chase, as it always happen.