8 ms·

Atleast 1 Human Will Be Killed Deliberately by an Autonomous Robot Within 10 Yrs

19 points by BIackSwan 2y ago

yawpitch 2y ago
Uh, pretty sure it’s already happened, if by “robot” you mean programmed (but not necessarily independently mobile) automaton / machine, by “autonomous” you mean not under the direct and realtime control of a human operator, and by “deliberately” you mean ML came up with a > 0.5 certainty that the target met its targeting criteria. Doubt a robot will ever actually deliberate, but that’s more of a philosophical issue.
- hollerith 2y ago
  I took the title to mean that human commanders will deliberately choose to deploy an autonomous robot configured to kill a person or persons (as opposed to a robot's killing a person, but the death was unwanted and unforeseen by the commanders).
  - yawpitch 2y ago
    Yeah, my point is that’s kinda already been done, if we include modern “smart” landmines and loitering munitions. Honestly, I think this threshold is arguably behind us, but I’d also say if it isn’t it will be in a lot less than a decade.
    - potato3732842 2y ago
      My money is on automated AA systems near some inland border where commercial flights just so happen to never go nabbing a crop duster, surveying aircraft or SAR/med chopper because some comedy of errors resulted in the device getting put on way too hair trigger of a setting.
      - tim333 2y ago
        Human operated AA systems regularly shoot down the wrong thing so unless the automated systems are much better than us it seems pretty certain.
JCharante 2y ago
Did HN automatically strip "Prediction -" from the title? At a glance it makes it look like the author is working on making it happen
- wryoak 2y ago
  The best way to be right is to make yourself right
aaron695 2y ago
[dead]
gmerc 2y ago
Ya but a tons of people are killed by humans every day so it's fine.
tdeck 2y ago
Didn't this already happen? https://www.npr.org/2021/06/01/1002196245/a-u-n-report-suggests-libya-saw-the-first-battlefield-killing-by-an-autonomous-d https://www.npr.org/2021/06/01/1002196245/a-u-n-report-sugge...
- aaron695 2y ago
  [dead]
ArtRichards 2y ago
Reminds me of this: ‘The machine did it coldly’: Israel used AI to identify 37,000 Hamas targets https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/israel-gaza-ai-database-hamas-airstrikes https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/israel-gaza-ai...
- runarberg 2y ago
  I think you are talking about Lavender: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39918245 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39918245 (7 months ago, 1418 points; 1601 comments)
- fuzzfactor 2y ago
  >‘The machine did it coldly’ I'm not so sure, with the technology they're "shooting for". I thought this said it all: >They can differentiate between friendly, civilian and enemy, decide to engage or alert based on target type, and even vary their effects. Obviouly they're only going to be designing, building, and deploying "nice bombs".
fuzzfactor 2y ago
You'd know exactly how it was going to happen if you could review every line of code, every comment, and every bit (byte) of data involved, and make sure it was meaningful. So you could precisely pinpoint the exact data path that would carry out such a deed, and how it got that way. And be able to follow the trail of bits throughout the entire chain-of-command and arrive at the root cause quite logically. Oh wait a minute . . . I was thinking about an accidental killing, my bad. For a deliberate killing you don't need any of that.
- EvanAnderson 2y ago
  It depends on whether the murderer intends to get away with it.
more_corn 2y ago
This is already happening in Ukraine.
- superb_dev 2y ago
  And Palestine
simple10 2y ago
For military drones, yes, this will certainly happen if it hasn't already. I'd love to see some predictions on manufacturing robots intentionally killing someone for the greater good in a sort of Trolley Problem [1]. The theoretical potential of AI safety protocols getting misaligned and a robot deciding to sacrifice a human worker to save multiple lives. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_problem
- geon 2y ago
  That’s the Robotic Civil Wars as imagined by Asimov. https://asimov.fandom.com/wiki/Robotic_Civil_Wars https://asimov.fandom.com/wiki/Robotic_Civil_Wars
- fhfjfk 2y ago
  That'll happen with self driving cars. It'll be interesting to see whether pedestrian or occupants are considered more valuable.
tim333 2y ago
In 2001 an S200 missile fired at a drone during a military exercise missed the drone, saw an airliner 160 miles further away and went and took that out. Not sure if that counts? No one actually told it to go for the airliner but it kind of took the initiative. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_Airlines_Flight_1812 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_Airlines_Flight_1812)
hcfman 2y ago
Which is worse? Killing one human automatically by a computer. Or dropping 2000 lb bombs on civilian areas by human decisions deliberately? Just a question.

19 points by BIackSwan 2y ago

Uh, pretty sure it’s already happened, if by “robot” you mean programmed (but not necessarily independently mobile) automaton / machine, by “autonomous” you mean not under the direct and realtime control of a human operator, and by “deliberately” you mean ML came up with a > 0.5 certainty that the target met its targeting criteria. Doubt a robot will ever actually deliberate, but that’s more of a philosophical issue.

hollerith 2y ago
I took the title to mean that human commanders will deliberately choose to deploy an autonomous robot configured to kill a person or persons (as opposed to a robot's killing a person, but the death was unwanted and unforeseen by the commanders).
- yawpitch 2y ago
  Yeah, my point is that’s kinda already been done, if we include modern “smart” landmines and loitering munitions. Honestly, I think this threshold is arguably behind us, but I’d also say if it isn’t it will be in a lot less than a decade.
  - potato3732842 2y ago
    My money is on automated AA systems near some inland border where commercial flights just so happen to never go nabbing a crop duster, surveying aircraft or SAR/med chopper because some comedy of errors resulted in the device getting put on way too hair trigger of a setting.
    - tim333 2y ago
      Human operated AA systems regularly shoot down the wrong thing so unless the automated systems are much better than us it seems pretty certain.

JCharante 2y ago

Did HN automatically strip "Prediction -" from the title? At a glance it makes it look like the author is working on making it happen

wryoak 2y ago
The best way to be right is to make yourself right

aaron695 2y ago

[dead]

gmerc 2y ago

Ya but a tons of people are killed by humans every day so it's fine.

tdeck 2y ago

Didn't this already happen? https://www.npr.org/2021/06/01/1002196245/a-u-n-report-suggests-libya-saw-the-first-battlefield-killing-by-an-autonomous-d https://www.npr.org/2021/06/01/1002196245/a-u-n-report-sugge...

aaron695 2y ago
[dead]

ArtRichards 2y ago

Reminds me of this: ‘The machine did it coldly’: Israel used AI to identify 37,000 Hamas targets https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/israel-gaza-ai-database-hamas-airstrikes https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/israel-gaza-ai...

runarberg 2y ago
I think you are talking about Lavender: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39918245 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39918245 (7 months ago, 1418 points; 1601 comments)
fuzzfactor 2y ago
>‘The machine did it coldly’ I'm not so sure, with the technology they're "shooting for". I thought this said it all: >They can differentiate between friendly, civilian and enemy, decide to engage or alert based on target type, and even vary their effects. Obviouly they're only going to be designing, building, and deploying "nice bombs".

fuzzfactor 2y ago

You'd know exactly how it was going to happen if you could review every line of code, every comment, and every bit (byte) of data involved, and make sure it was meaningful. So you could precisely pinpoint the exact data path that would carry out such a deed, and how it got that way. And be able to follow the trail of bits throughout the entire chain-of-command and arrive at the root cause quite logically. Oh wait a minute . . . I was thinking about an accidental killing, my bad. For a deliberate killing you don't need any of that.

EvanAnderson 2y ago
It depends on whether the murderer intends to get away with it.

more_corn 2y ago

This is already happening in Ukraine.

superb_dev 2y ago
And Palestine

simple10 2y ago

For military drones, yes, this will certainly happen if it hasn't already. I'd love to see some predictions on manufacturing robots intentionally killing someone for the greater good in a sort of Trolley Problem [1]. The theoretical potential of AI safety protocols getting misaligned and a robot deciding to sacrifice a human worker to save multiple lives. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_problem

geon 2y ago
That’s the Robotic Civil Wars as imagined by Asimov. https://asimov.fandom.com/wiki/Robotic_Civil_Wars https://asimov.fandom.com/wiki/Robotic_Civil_Wars
fhfjfk 2y ago
That'll happen with self driving cars. It'll be interesting to see whether pedestrian or occupants are considered more valuable.

tim333 2y ago

In 2001 an S200 missile fired at a drone during a military exercise missed the drone, saw an airliner 160 miles further away and went and took that out. Not sure if that counts? No one actually told it to go for the airliner but it kind of took the initiative. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_Airlines_Flight_1812 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_Airlines_Flight_1812)

hcfman 2y ago

Which is worse? Killing one human automatically by a computer. Or dropping 2000 lb bombs on civilian areas by human decisions deliberately? Just a question.