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How do you change the political environment in a dictatorship where ruling class has all the power and majority of the money and controls what you should read,

How do you change the political environment in a dictatorship where ruling class has all the power and majority of the money and controls what you should read, watch or talk about?

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
rob74 2y ago
Well, the Russians already tried it once, more than 100 years ago, with limited success unfortunately...
- 082349872349872 2y ago
  A while ago on HN I said the Cheka learned all their techniques from the Okhrana and people took me literally, even replying to the effect that there was no personnel continuity. What I'd meant is that, having been on the receiving end of all the Okhrana's dirty tricks, and having learned the hard way, the Cheka knew very well indeed how to play those games by the time they were on top.
- protomolecule 2y ago
  [flagged]
- pk-protect-ai 2y ago
  To repeat this, there has to be a condition: "the oppressed can't bear it anymore." Economically, they are totally fine. They are just cattle who are fed and expected to behave as the owner requires. Ninety percent of Russians who didn't leave the country after 2021 have no incentive to be in any struggle; they are fed, they have work, they have a roof. The conditions that helped in 1917 were related to an economic disaster that the majority of the population experienced, and this was influenced by the 1st WW as well (which took a huge financial toll on the elites as well).
  - 082349872349872 2y ago
    The ca. 1924 Thermidorian limitations of the 1917 success were explained by Trotsky, whose subsequent literary career was thereupon cancelled, via an ice axe to the head. (I don't know to what degree Eric Blair worried about a similar fate, but we do see that after Animal Farm he moves to a remote island in Scotland, where presumably strangers would draw much greater attention to themselves than in London — and before returning to London for hospital marries a much younger spook*) * compare a line from Trotsky: "Rakovsky cites a curious remark of Babeuf to the effect that the degeneration of the new ruling stratum was helped along not a little by the former young ladies of the aristocracy toward whom the Jacobins were very friendly. ... A census of the wives of the ruling stratum in the Soviet Union would show a similar picture." https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.74858/page/n116/mode/1up https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.74858/page/n11...
    - pk-protect-ai 2y ago
      Regardless, under current conditions there is no slim chance of rebellion in Russia. Massive conscription, on the other hand, and of course massive losses of the conscripted may cause an effect similar to 1917. However, the next government will be the same dictatorship as it always was in Russia, just slightly less aggressive toward neighbors.
      - 082349872349872 2y ago
        Do you think there might have been an opportunity during the 90-x to find a different ("Пеpемен, мы ждём пеpемен") attraction basin? (as it is, at least the Yeltsin jokes can, like Brezhnev jokes, be repurposed for US use 2025-2028...)
        gradschoolfail 2y ago
        Slightly ot or maybe not, the educational inflection point was deep in the mid of the Cultural Revolution, which suggests that mass rustications are indeed situations to look into.. (The mechanism is probably that STEMish rusticants began to selforganize learning centres) COVID might have already started the process of Montanacation — elite diffusion to the hills —for the US (tho 2024 might actually reverse it) For russians so far, the conscripts are so far drawn disprop from the lows; the tops prefer to emigrate/stay out of the country, so wait a bit.
riehwvfbk 2y ago
The ruling class is not a monolith, it's made of people with their own idea who are constantly vying for a better position. Just this week some part of the US ruling class got some better seats in the game of musical chairs. The game's not much different anywhere in the world, other than the window dressing.
- 082349872349872 2y ago
  Goldstein, The Theory and Practice of Oligarchical Collectivism (1948) has a description of the game which agrees with Veblen, Luttwak, Bueno de Mesquita & Smith, and probably a few others over the last five thousand years. If the mid wishes a circulation of elites, they must ally with the low against the high; if the high wishes to prevent this, they can ally with the low against the mid. A crucial point on which Goldstein, Squealer, and the 2 Ronnies, agree is that no matter which way these alliances are sorted in theory, somehow in practice the low always wind up more or less where they started. > Oh, it's the meek! Blessed are the meek! Oh, that's nice, isn't it? I'm glad they're getting something, 'cause they have a hell of a time. —Mrs. BN

How do you change the political environment in a dictatorship where ruling class has all the power and majority of the money and controls what you should read, watch or talk about?

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

rob74 2y ago

Well, the Russians already tried it once, more than 100 years ago, with limited success unfortunately...

082349872349872 2y ago
A while ago on HN I said the Cheka learned all their techniques from the Okhrana and people took me literally, even replying to the effect that there was no personnel continuity. What I'd meant is that, having been on the receiving end of all the Okhrana's dirty tricks, and having learned the hard way, the Cheka knew very well indeed how to play those games by the time they were on top.
protomolecule 2y ago
[flagged]
pk-protect-ai 2y ago
To repeat this, there has to be a condition: "the oppressed can't bear it anymore." Economically, they are totally fine. They are just cattle who are fed and expected to behave as the owner requires. Ninety percent of Russians who didn't leave the country after 2021 have no incentive to be in any struggle; they are fed, they have work, they have a roof. The conditions that helped in 1917 were related to an economic disaster that the majority of the population experienced, and this was influenced by the 1st WW as well (which took a huge financial toll on the elites as well).
- 082349872349872 2y ago
  The ca. 1924 Thermidorian limitations of the 1917 success were explained by Trotsky, whose subsequent literary career was thereupon cancelled, via an ice axe to the head. (I don't know to what degree Eric Blair worried about a similar fate, but we do see that after Animal Farm he moves to a remote island in Scotland, where presumably strangers would draw much greater attention to themselves than in London — and before returning to London for hospital marries a much younger spook*) * compare a line from Trotsky: "Rakovsky cites a curious remark of Babeuf to the effect that the degeneration of the new ruling stratum was helped along not a little by the former young ladies of the aristocracy toward whom the Jacobins were very friendly. ... A census of the wives of the ruling stratum in the Soviet Union would show a similar picture." https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.74858/page/n116/mode/1up https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.74858/page/n11...
  - pk-protect-ai 2y ago
    Regardless, under current conditions there is no slim chance of rebellion in Russia. Massive conscription, on the other hand, and of course massive losses of the conscripted may cause an effect similar to 1917. However, the next government will be the same dictatorship as it always was in Russia, just slightly less aggressive toward neighbors.
    - 082349872349872 2y ago
      Do you think there might have been an opportunity during the 90-x to find a different ("Пеpемен, мы ждём пеpемен") attraction basin? (as it is, at least the Yeltsin jokes can, like Brezhnev jokes, be repurposed for US use 2025-2028...)
      - gradschoolfail 2y ago
        Slightly ot or maybe not, the educational inflection point was deep in the mid of the Cultural Revolution, which suggests that mass rustications are indeed situations to look into.. (The mechanism is probably that STEMish rusticants began to selforganize learning centres) COVID might have already started the process of Montanacation — elite diffusion to the hills —for the US (tho 2024 might actually reverse it) For russians so far, the conscripts are so far drawn disprop from the lows; the tops prefer to emigrate/stay out of the country, so wait a bit.

riehwvfbk 2y ago

The ruling class is not a monolith, it's made of people with their own idea who are constantly vying for a better position. Just this week some part of the US ruling class got some better seats in the game of musical chairs. The game's not much different anywhere in the world, other than the window dressing.

082349872349872 2y ago
Goldstein, The Theory and Practice of Oligarchical Collectivism (1948) has a description of the game which agrees with Veblen, Luttwak, Bueno de Mesquita & Smith, and probably a few others over the last five thousand years. If the mid wishes a circulation of elites, they must ally with the low against the high; if the high wishes to prevent this, they can ally with the low against the mid. A crucial point on which Goldstein, Squealer, and the 2 Ronnies, agree is that no matter which way these alliances are sorted in theory, somehow in practice the low always wind up more or less where they started. > Oh, it's the meek! Blessed are the meek! Oh, that's nice, isn't it? I'm glad they're getting something, 'cause they have a hell of a time. —Mrs. BN