4 ms·

According to the economic theory behind tarrifs this strengthens them. Funny how we are trying to do the same thing to ourselves.

ghufran_syed 2y ago
so in the event of effective sanctions on a country, where the tariff is effectively infinite making the amount supplied go to zero… this should be even better for the country affected?
- bilbo0s 2y ago
  Tariffs are always good for someone. Just not most people. Is it good for anyone who wants to manufacture chips in China. Obviously, yes it is good for them. But it is not good, in the short term, for people who want to buy chips in China. But it might be bad for everyone in China, because someone above implied that they actually don't have the knowledge to make these chips. Not sure how true that is? But assuming it is true, that would hurt everyone in China.
- stonesthrowaway 2y ago
  > so in the event of effective sanctions on a country That's the point. You can't effectively sanction china. > where the tariff is effectively infinite making the amount supplied go to zero There is a difference between a complete blockade and targeted sanctions. > this should be even better for the country affected? One causes a complete collapse of an economy (north korea) while the latter helps a nation build up a sector of an industry (china). China is the top trading partner of most countries around the world. Even with these sanctions. Go figure. It would be like if china banned exports of 'rare earth minerals' to the US. It would only make the US stronger because we'd just invest in mining rare earth minerals.
dmix 2y ago
Tariffs always benefits someone, just not the majority of people in most cases.
bumbledraven 2y ago
Only if they have — or can reasonably develop — the means to produce cutting-edge chips on their own, which is (arguably) not the case.
- vFunct 2y ago
  If push comes to shove, they will.
- bilbo0s 2y ago
  Wait. What? Serious interest here. Can anyone else verify that the Chinese don't have the ability to develop and manufacture these chips? That's stunning. I had no idea that was the case. Or is this just a, "they don't manufacture computer chips" kind of thing. Which, strategically speaking, is critically different than, "they don't know how".
  - whatshisface 2y ago
    China can manufacture all but the best chips. They are continually improving, and I don't think anyone has offered a single reason why they couldn't do it.
    - presentation 2y ago
      I think the insinuated reason is that they’re somehow inferior as a people.
    - csomar 2y ago
      Superiority complex. Which is interesting, given that tech companies have lots of Asians in them. Then the goal gets moved to cultural superiority. I don’t discount culture but money and power are strongest drivers in my opinion; and China is willing to offer you lot of that if you are willing to abide by the party line.
vFunct 2y ago
Yah this is going to have the opposite effect, as it will only encourage China to develop their own EUV stepper and fab development. It might take 10 years to catch up, but 10 years isn't a long time in the grand scheme of things. Actually it might take them less than 10 years to catch up. I was at ICCAD (https://iccad.com https://iccad.com) last week and half the papers were from China. And some of the EDA CAD software is under export controls - specifically Gate-all-around technology used in 2nm and below. Right now the big EDA vendors have developers in China who are making the software they're not allowed to sell in THEIR OWN COUNTRY. China is basically where Japan was in the 1970s and Korea in the 1980s. Only 10 years before they become dominant in the industry.
- TheUnhinged 2y ago
  EUV (not High-NA) is much, much more complex than Immersion Lithography—and China doesn’t have have that either—the optics (mirrors), the light source, the masks, everything under vacuum… A blank check (which the government would be happy to sign) is not enough to catch up on everything in 10 years, integrate it and then make it work reliably at a decent throughput. Not impossible, of course, which is why they are going to try. To top it all off, a lot of this stuff is patented. Not that China cares all that much about Western patents, but violations in this area would make the geopolitical situation even more tense.
  - csomar 2y ago
    A ban and a trade war is more likely to make China just toss these patents on fire. Espionage is still a thing and for the right amount of $$, they might be able to find engineers who will switch sides.
  - russli1993 2y ago
    hmm, china is perfectly happy to buy any semi fab tools from Western companies, 40% of ASML sales is to China. The fact that none semi tools company were any significance before the US sanctions is the proof of that. Not only are the patents, the market, talent, money isn't there to make it a sustainable business. But u block the sale, and go max pressure, u create a huge incentive. The engineers in these companies are super happy. Now, in 2024, Chinese semi fab tools companies are moving up to near top 10 global fab tool companies. I have no doubt we will see DUV and EUV fully running on commercial fab lines in the next few years. "China doesn’t have have that either—the optics (mirrors), the light source, the masks, everything under vacuum" are you really sure about that? Let me help you here, a lot of this stuff are in Chinese universities. But not commercialized, cuz there is no commercial fly wheel when there are perfectly fine products on the market. Now you just gave $1B dollars to these researchers to bring it to market. This will take time, but this is an engineering, iterate and trial problem, not inventing quantum mechanics. The demand is always there, people who get it get a life time of wealth, what do you think?

ghufran_syed 2y ago

so in the event of effective sanctions on a country, where the tariff is effectively infinite making the amount supplied go to zero… this should be even better for the country affected?

bilbo0s 2y ago
Tariffs are always good for someone. Just not most people. Is it good for anyone who wants to manufacture chips in China. Obviously, yes it is good for them. But it is not good, in the short term, for people who want to buy chips in China. But it might be bad for everyone in China, because someone above implied that they actually don't have the knowledge to make these chips. Not sure how true that is? But assuming it is true, that would hurt everyone in China.
stonesthrowaway 2y ago
> so in the event of effective sanctions on a country That's the point. You can't effectively sanction china. > where the tariff is effectively infinite making the amount supplied go to zero There is a difference between a complete blockade and targeted sanctions. > this should be even better for the country affected? One causes a complete collapse of an economy (north korea) while the latter helps a nation build up a sector of an industry (china). China is the top trading partner of most countries around the world. Even with these sanctions. Go figure. It would be like if china banned exports of 'rare earth minerals' to the US. It would only make the US stronger because we'd just invest in mining rare earth minerals.

dmix 2y ago

Tariffs always benefits someone, just not the majority of people in most cases.

bumbledraven 2y ago

Only if they have — or can reasonably develop — the means to produce cutting-edge chips on their own, which is (arguably) not the case.

vFunct 2y ago
If push comes to shove, they will.
bilbo0s 2y ago
Wait. What? Serious interest here. Can anyone else verify that the Chinese don't have the ability to develop and manufacture these chips? That's stunning. I had no idea that was the case. Or is this just a, "they don't manufacture computer chips" kind of thing. Which, strategically speaking, is critically different than, "they don't know how".
- whatshisface 2y ago
  China can manufacture all but the best chips. They are continually improving, and I don't think anyone has offered a single reason why they couldn't do it.
  - presentation 2y ago
    I think the insinuated reason is that they’re somehow inferior as a people.
  - csomar 2y ago
    Superiority complex. Which is interesting, given that tech companies have lots of Asians in them. Then the goal gets moved to cultural superiority. I don’t discount culture but money and power are strongest drivers in my opinion; and China is willing to offer you lot of that if you are willing to abide by the party line.

vFunct 2y ago

Yah this is going to have the opposite effect, as it will only encourage China to develop their own EUV stepper and fab development. It might take 10 years to catch up, but 10 years isn't a long time in the grand scheme of things. Actually it might take them less than 10 years to catch up. I was at ICCAD (https://iccad.com https://iccad.com) last week and half the papers were from China. And some of the EDA CAD software is under export controls - specifically Gate-all-around technology used in 2nm and below. Right now the big EDA vendors have developers in China who are making the software they're not allowed to sell in THEIR OWN COUNTRY. China is basically where Japan was in the 1970s and Korea in the 1980s. Only 10 years before they become dominant in the industry.

TheUnhinged 2y ago
EUV (not High-NA) is much, much more complex than Immersion Lithography—and China doesn’t have have that either—the optics (mirrors), the light source, the masks, everything under vacuum… A blank check (which the government would be happy to sign) is not enough to catch up on everything in 10 years, integrate it and then make it work reliably at a decent throughput. Not impossible, of course, which is why they are going to try. To top it all off, a lot of this stuff is patented. Not that China cares all that much about Western patents, but violations in this area would make the geopolitical situation even more tense.
- csomar 2y ago
  A ban and a trade war is more likely to make China just toss these patents on fire. Espionage is still a thing and for the right amount of $$, they might be able to find engineers who will switch sides.
- russli1993 2y ago
  hmm, china is perfectly happy to buy any semi fab tools from Western companies, 40% of ASML sales is to China. The fact that none semi tools company were any significance before the US sanctions is the proof of that. Not only are the patents, the market, talent, money isn't there to make it a sustainable business. But u block the sale, and go max pressure, u create a huge incentive. The engineers in these companies are super happy. Now, in 2024, Chinese semi fab tools companies are moving up to near top 10 global fab tool companies. I have no doubt we will see DUV and EUV fully running on commercial fab lines in the next few years. "China doesn’t have have that either—the optics (mirrors), the light source, the masks, everything under vacuum" are you really sure about that? Let me help you here, a lot of this stuff are in Chinese universities. But not commercialized, cuz there is no commercial fly wheel when there are perfectly fine products on the market. Now you just gave $1B dollars to these researchers to bring it to market. This will take time, but this is an engineering, iterate and trial problem, not inventing quantum mechanics. The demand is always there, people who get it get a life time of wealth, what do you think?