You’re ignoring the prior information of „it looks like an abduction“ though. That’s like seeing a dead body on the street and saying „well they look to be unde

You’re ignoring the prior information of „it looks like an abduction“ though. That’s like seeing a dead body on the street and saying „well they look to be under 40, what are the odds that someone dies that young?“. The real question would be „Did more claimed kidnappings of crypto CEOs turn out to be staged or were real?“.