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That logic also applies to flying versus driving, but few make the same objection when someone points out that flying is safer than driving. And at the margins

by ggreer 2y ago

That logic also applies to flying versus driving, but few make the same objection when someone points out that flying is safer than driving. And at the margins, cycling does substitute for driving, just as driving sometimes substitutes for flying. The different modes of transportation do have various advantages and disadvantages, but the fact remains that cycling is significantly more dangerous.

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sottol 2y ago
Yes, on the margins cycling is more dangerous in the USA. OTOH, I wouldn't be surprised if the physical exercise would reduce mortality enough to still be a net positive on the margins - biking to the bakery vs driving - but haven't verified that. Interesting tidbit from the report is that almost 50% of fatalities are in towns <100k population, 16% outside towns and 34% in pop centers > 100k. I would have guessed metro areas are more dangerous.
- ggreer 2y ago
  There is no country in which cycling is safer than driving. Even in the Netherlands, the fatality rate is 13 deaths per billion miles. For comparison, the Netherlands has 3 deaths per billion miles by car.
  - sottol 2y ago
    I still think it's not useful to compare fatalities per billion miles, especially cycling and driving (and especially if that includes highway driving, which is clearly not something you could use a bike for instead). Iceland had several years with zero or one reported cycling fatalities, I can't find road fatalities quickly but I assume driving is less safe there, especially if I'm allowed to cherry-pick a zero-fatality year (where you'd have 0 fatalities per billion miles cycled).
  - Mawr 2y ago
    It's the other way around, overwhelmingly so: "With 290 cyclist fatalities in 2022, cyclists were the largest group of road casualties." [1] "Cycling prevents about 6500 deaths each year, and Dutch people have half-a-year-longer life expectancy because of cycling. These health benefits correspond to more than 3% of the Dutch gross domestic product. Our study confirmed that investments in bicycle-promoting policies (e.g., improved bicycle infrastructure and facilities) will likely yield a high cost–benefit ratio in the long term." [2] --- That's just the big picture though, I suspect your statistics are wrong directly as well. Cycling deaths are very skewed towards the elderly [3], so it appears that if you're under 50, cycling is statistically safer than driving, no matter how you look at it. --- [1]: https://english.kimnet.nl/publications/publications/2023/11/30/summary-mobility-report-2023 https://english.kimnet.nl/publications/publications/2023/11/... [2]: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4504332/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4504332/ [3]: https://bicycledutch.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/figures2024-07.jpg https://bicycledutch.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/0... (https://bicycledutch.wordpress.com/2024/03/06/cycling-safety-in-the-netherlands-understanding-the-challenges-and-searching-for-solutions/ https://bicycledutch.wordpress.com/2024/03/06/cycling-safety...)
rcxdude 2y ago
For a more fair comparison you should discount highway miles from the car stats. That's the safest form of driving there is, and accounts for a very large fraction of miles, but doesn't represent the kind of journey you would be cycling, anyway. Comparing just car journeys you could make with a bike would be a better comparison.

by ggreer 2y ago

deleted 2y ago

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sottol 2y ago

Yes, on the margins cycling is more dangerous in the USA. OTOH, I wouldn't be surprised if the physical exercise would reduce mortality enough to still be a net positive on the margins - biking to the bakery vs driving - but haven't verified that. Interesting tidbit from the report is that almost 50% of fatalities are in towns <100k population, 16% outside towns and 34% in pop centers > 100k. I would have guessed metro areas are more dangerous.

ggreer 2y ago
There is no country in which cycling is safer than driving. Even in the Netherlands, the fatality rate is 13 deaths per billion miles. For comparison, the Netherlands has 3 deaths per billion miles by car.
- sottol 2y ago
  I still think it's not useful to compare fatalities per billion miles, especially cycling and driving (and especially if that includes highway driving, which is clearly not something you could use a bike for instead). Iceland had several years with zero or one reported cycling fatalities, I can't find road fatalities quickly but I assume driving is less safe there, especially if I'm allowed to cherry-pick a zero-fatality year (where you'd have 0 fatalities per billion miles cycled).
- Mawr 2y ago
  It's the other way around, overwhelmingly so: "With 290 cyclist fatalities in 2022, cyclists were the largest group of road casualties." [1] "Cycling prevents about 6500 deaths each year, and Dutch people have half-a-year-longer life expectancy because of cycling. These health benefits correspond to more than 3% of the Dutch gross domestic product. Our study confirmed that investments in bicycle-promoting policies (e.g., improved bicycle infrastructure and facilities) will likely yield a high cost–benefit ratio in the long term." [2] --- That's just the big picture though, I suspect your statistics are wrong directly as well. Cycling deaths are very skewed towards the elderly [3], so it appears that if you're under 50, cycling is statistically safer than driving, no matter how you look at it. --- [1]: https://english.kimnet.nl/publications/publications/2023/11/30/summary-mobility-report-2023 https://english.kimnet.nl/publications/publications/2023/11/... [2]: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4504332/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4504332/ [3]: https://bicycledutch.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/figures2024-07.jpg https://bicycledutch.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/0... (https://bicycledutch.wordpress.com/2024/03/06/cycling-safety-in-the-netherlands-understanding-the-challenges-and-searching-for-solutions/ https://bicycledutch.wordpress.com/2024/03/06/cycling-safety...)

rcxdude 2y ago

For a more fair comparison you should discount highway miles from the car stats. That's the safest form of driving there is, and accounts for a very large fraction of miles, but doesn't represent the kind of journey you would be cycling, anyway. Comparing just car journeys you could make with a bike would be a better comparison.