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>If AI is so powerful why don’t we see a massive productivity spike around the globe? We overestimate the short term effects and underestimate the long term ef
by llm_nerd 2y ago
>If AI is so powerful why don’t we see a massive productivity spike around the globe?
We overestimate the short term effects and underestimate the long term effects (Amara's law). We're currently in the trough of disillusionment where people are running around saying that AI failed, was overblown, etc, while people like me are working with corporations to completely change how they operate, to an outrageous efficiency boost. Our world is going to look very different in a decade.
>It may be convenient but more than once just replaced the time I needed to write my code by time fine tuning the prompt because the AI didn’t quite got what I wanted
Most software developers spend very little of their time actually "coding", and most of their time investigating, understanding, comparing, and so on. I have never used AI for "production" code -- I never copy/paste something into my code -- but dozens of times a day I do use it to get rough outlines, investigate libraries and their use, and most importantly to get heuristics on paths to take in the code I do write. It has proven absolutely invaluable to me and I can't imagine not having it as an accelerator now.
- JohnFen 2y ago> Our world is going to look very different in a decade. I agree with this. I just seriously doubt that it's going to look better because of it. I suspect the opposite.
- nitwit005 2y agoIt can't simultaneously not show up in efficiency data, and provide an "outrageous efficiency boost".
- llm_nerd 2y agoWhat imaginary "efficiency data" are you citing? Ignoring that US "productivity" data has been skyrocketing, when loads of large orgs are laying off loads of people and specifically citing it as the reason, maybe it is actually starting to have an impact?
- nitwit005 2y agoIf it is causing a huge gain in efficiency, it should be trivial to demonstrate with data. You're talking about "Amara's law", and "trough of disillusionment". None of that shit matters. Just share the data, and people will agree.