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> Flipside: prediction markets absolutely missed Harris's pick of Walz. A pick of VP is not easy to model as some sort of stochastic variable from sample data.
by rightbyte 2y ago
> Flipside: prediction markets absolutely missed Harris's pick of Walz.
A pick of VP is not easy to model as some sort of stochastic variable from sample data.
- dredmorbius 2y agoOf course, if we want to assess which methodology is more accurate, we'll need more than two cherry-picked examples. <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42074220 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42074220>
- rightbyte 2y agoAhhh, sorry, somehow I thought you meant the two Vice President candidates as the 'cherries being picked'. Not the two betting examples.
- dredmorbius 2y agoNo, I'm referring to the blinkered focus on two specific instances of prediction. Again: a systemic review is required, and I've linked some of the extant literature.