4 ms·

The trough of disillusionment is going to be frightening, and I believe we're starting to see the first signs of it (with Apple's paper, ironically enough).

ninjin 2y ago
Not sure which paper you are referring to. Would you be happy to share it for those of us that seemingly have missed it?
- omgwtfbyobbq 2y ago
  It's a part of the hype cycle. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle I'm not sure how accurate it is overall, but there are companies that fit it.
- mgh2 2y ago
  This one? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42024539 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42024539
  - ninjin 2y ago
    Thanks, that is probably the one. Here is a link to the paper itself on arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.05229 https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.05229
- yardstick 2y ago
  Paper as in stocks. Traditionally stock certificates were printed on paper. Apples share price has taken a bit of a fall this week.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
kahon65 2y ago
Not ready
lm28469 2y ago
~2 years into the LLM revolution, not a single productivity metric has significantly gone up in any country while we collectively spent hundred of billions on it. What really happened: LLMs are fuelling the phishing and scam industry like never before, search engine results are shittier than ever, every other website is an automated LLM generated seo placeholder, every other image is ai generated, students are heavily using these techs for homeworks with unknown long term effects, scientists are using them to write their papers: quality--, quantity++, bots on social media increased dramatically and probably playing a huge role in social tensions. You can probably add a few dozen things in the list
- openrisk 2y ago
  > we collectively spent hundred of billions on it Remember the Metaverse? We are talking about entities that can burn billions on speculative projects and it is just a rounding error on quarterly profits. Let alone that frequently the outlay is in-part recovered via the various "sell shovels in a gold rush" strategies. This is what total stranglehold of a critical sector helps with. Inefficiency of capital allocation at interplanetary scale - but that's another story. LLM's might be new but the ML/AI type of efficiency/productivity argument is decades old. The domains where it leads to "gains" are generally when the org deploying algos manages not to be held responsible for the externalities unleashed.
  - rangestransform 2y ago
    The shorttermism of traditional shareholder capitalism is hardly a more preferable outcome Companies having more money than god and spending it speculatively at least got us self driving cars
    - openrisk 2y ago
      Oligopolistic / Competitive vs Short-termist / Long-term are rather orthogonal dimensions and derive from different types of regulations and incentives.
- aubanel 2y ago

ninjin 2y ago

Not sure which paper you are referring to. Would you be happy to share it for those of us that seemingly have missed it?

omgwtfbyobbq 2y ago
It's a part of the hype cycle. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle I'm not sure how accurate it is overall, but there are companies that fit it.
mgh2 2y ago
This one? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42024539 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42024539
- ninjin 2y ago
  Thanks, that is probably the one. Here is a link to the paper itself on arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.05229 https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.05229
yardstick 2y ago
Paper as in stocks. Traditionally stock certificates were printed on paper. Apples share price has taken a bit of a fall this week.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

kahon65 2y ago

Not ready

lm28469 2y ago

~2 years into the LLM revolution, not a single productivity metric has significantly gone up in any country while we collectively spent hundred of billions on it. What really happened: LLMs are fuelling the phishing and scam industry like never before, search engine results are shittier than ever, every other website is an automated LLM generated seo placeholder, every other image is ai generated, students are heavily using these techs for homeworks with unknown long term effects, scientists are using them to write their papers: quality--, quantity++, bots on social media increased dramatically and probably playing a huge role in social tensions. You can probably add a few dozen things in the list

openrisk 2y ago
> we collectively spent hundred of billions on it Remember the Metaverse? We are talking about entities that can burn billions on speculative projects and it is just a rounding error on quarterly profits. Let alone that frequently the outlay is in-part recovered via the various "sell shovels in a gold rush" strategies. This is what total stranglehold of a critical sector helps with. Inefficiency of capital allocation at interplanetary scale - but that's another story. LLM's might be new but the ML/AI type of efficiency/productivity argument is decades old. The domains where it leads to "gains" are generally when the org deploying algos manages not to be held responsible for the externalities unleashed.
- rangestransform 2y ago
  The shorttermism of traditional shareholder capitalism is hardly a more preferable outcome Companies having more money than god and spending it speculatively at least got us self driving cars
  - openrisk 2y ago
    Oligopolistic / Competitive vs Short-termist / Long-term are rather orthogonal dimensions and derive from different types of regulations and incentives.
aubanel 2y ago