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declining birth rates are not a problem unless you are an aspiring empire, or if you are surrounded by enemies, or if you have a huge debt. As GPD falls, the s

declining birth rates are not a problem unless you are an aspiring empire, or if you are surrounded by enemies, or if you have a huge debt. As GPD falls, the share of debt becomes greater and the burden falls on fewer people. So taxes must go up, productivity must go way up (death loop, adults working more and not seeking families), or welfare spend must go down This is why debt its called generational theft.

warner25 2y ago
Yeah, "surrounded by enemies" comes to mind for South Korea. I served there as an American in defense of the ROK, as generations of American troops have done since WWII, and I think it's ironic that in 100 years they might cease to exist not because of a North Korean and Chinese invasion but because their birth rate simply led to a collapse. (Although North Korea and China have their own demographic problems - I'm not sure if that defuses or heats up the situation.)
lxgr 2y ago
> unless you are an aspiring empire, or if you are surrounded by enemies, or if you have a huge debt. Or if you depend on future generations to take care for older ones once they reach retirement age, which is all of them. (A savings account can't care for the elderly, so debt doesn't really have much to do with it; you can see the problem entirely while staying in real economic terms without looking at money.) You can make up for some of that with immigration, but whether people will be very accepting of something like a >50% immigration rate over a single or two generations is also questionable.
- naijaboiler 2y ago
  This. Debt is just 0s on a paper. What actually matters id there are physically less people to take care of the needs of the old and everyone
  - IG_Semmelweiss 2y ago
    Who took care of elderly people, prior to 1935 ? If debt is just 0s, consider you haven't been out much. I dont think you'd get a good receiption for that message in 1950s germany, or today in argentina, or lebanon.
- beeflet 2y ago
  I know this seems crazy, but if a country is willing to enforce a one-child-policy might they just turn their old folks into soylent green as well? It doesn't mesh with existing chinese culture, so I wouldn't expect this to happen in our lifetime, but it wouldn't be the first time malthusian government policy is deployed at large scale.
pyuser583 2y ago
Or you have pension obligations. Or are concerned about your dependency ratio.

warner25 2y ago

Yeah, "surrounded by enemies" comes to mind for South Korea. I served there as an American in defense of the ROK, as generations of American troops have done since WWII, and I think it's ironic that in 100 years they might cease to exist not because of a North Korean and Chinese invasion but because their birth rate simply led to a collapse. (Although North Korea and China have their own demographic problems - I'm not sure if that defuses or heats up the situation.)

lxgr 2y ago

> unless you are an aspiring empire, or if you are surrounded by enemies, or if you have a huge debt. Or if you depend on future generations to take care for older ones once they reach retirement age, which is all of them. (A savings account can't care for the elderly, so debt doesn't really have much to do with it; you can see the problem entirely while staying in real economic terms without looking at money.) You can make up for some of that with immigration, but whether people will be very accepting of something like a >50% immigration rate over a single or two generations is also questionable.

naijaboiler 2y ago
This. Debt is just 0s on a paper. What actually matters id there are physically less people to take care of the needs of the old and everyone
- IG_Semmelweiss 2y ago
  Who took care of elderly people, prior to 1935 ? If debt is just 0s, consider you haven't been out much. I dont think you'd get a good receiption for that message in 1950s germany, or today in argentina, or lebanon.
beeflet 2y ago
I know this seems crazy, but if a country is willing to enforce a one-child-policy might they just turn their old folks into soylent green as well? It doesn't mesh with existing chinese culture, so I wouldn't expect this to happen in our lifetime, but it wouldn't be the first time malthusian government policy is deployed at large scale.

pyuser583 2y ago

Or you have pension obligations. Or are concerned about your dependency ratio.