4 ms·

I like the long-term thinking, but what about other trends? Texas was quietly (it seems to me) getting less red up until this election. America is getting more

I like the long-term thinking, but what about other trends? Texas was quietly (it seems to me) getting less red up until this election. America is getting more diverse and more educated, and Boomers are slowly dying off while younger people have been overwhelmingly against Trumpism. So shouldn't the Trump / Republican base start shrinking? Maybe e.g. Texas +4 isn't necessarily horrendous for Democrats.

mise_en_place 2y ago
> Boomers are slowly dying off while younger people have been overwhelmingly against Trumpism. Is this really the case? My understanding, based on voting data, is that Gen Z was overwhelming for Trump and Trumpism. If anything, Baby Boomers have gone way more left than they have been in previous elections.
- warner25 2y ago
  I've seen no data showing Gen Z support for Trump, and I'm interested if you have some. I'm seeing[1] an 11 point lead for Harris among the age 18-29 group. That's much more narrow, of course, than the margins in 2016 and 2020, so I guess Gen Z is more supportive of Trump than Millenials were at the same age. [1] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls
shkkmo 2y ago
> younger people have been overwhelmingly against Trumpism. Young people (18-29) are the age demographic where Trump made his biggest gain from 2020 to 2024. The only demographic where Harris had gains as the oldest demographic. So while democrats still won the young vote, the trend is in the opposite direction.
- warner25 2y ago
  Fair point about the trend, yes. And thanks for pointing out that Harris actually made gains with Boomers; I've verified that and updated my mental model.
heyjamesknight 2y ago
Gen X voted Trump more than any other generation. Millenials are shifting that way.
- warner25 2y ago
  You appear to be correct; thanks for pointing it out. I'm now seeing[1] a 10 point lead for Trump among ages 45-64, and a tie among ages 65+. My mental model was still based on the 2016 and 2020 numbers. [1] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls
- jasondigitized 2y ago
  and they will shift back like amnesic goldfish. rinse. repeat.
shiroiushi 2y ago
>Boomers are slowly dying off while younger people have been overwhelmingly against Trumpism. No they aren't. Gen Z young men are all voting for Trump. >America is getting more diverse and more educated Diverse maybe, educated no. They're getting more college degrees than 50+ years ago I suppose, but they're not worth much compared to college degrees in the past. These days, college just makes up for utterly lousy secondary school education. Educational standards in the US have been in decline for a very long time.
- johnnyanmac 2y ago
  Not from what I've seen. But I get why you think that https://www.axios.com/2024/09/28/gen-z-men-conservative-poll https://www.axios.com/2024/09/28/gen-z-men-conservative-poll Just look at the headline. But the numbers just saying "18-24 are slighyly more conservative than 24-30". While the lion's share simply say they are moderate. So it can really swing any which way. As another statitic: https://i.redd.it/6sekbauh9uec1.jpeg https://i.redd.it/6sekbauh9uec1.jpeg Only up to 2020, but for the US you see that liberalism for men only stagnated in 2020, not shift conservative. South Korea... I have no clue what has happened. > These days, college just makes up for utterly lousy secondary school education. A bit questionable (I reckon lousy grade school just means less college, and college participation rates are decreasing), but I do agree that secondary education has utterly tarnished its standards. NCLB can't even explain this horrible drop.
- warner25 2y ago
  > Gen Z young men are all voting for Trump. From the exit poll data, I see a 2 point lead for Trump among men age 18-29. That's interesting, but probably also within the margin of error. (For women in that range it's an overwhelming 24 point lead for Harris, making the overall support for Harris in that group pretty strong, albeit not as strong as I thought and much weaker than in 2020 and 2016.) > ...more college degrees... Yes, and regardless of your opinion of them, this has been inversely correlated with support for Trump. This has not changed from 2016, to 2020, to 2024.
  - shiroiushi 2y ago

mise_en_place 2y ago

> Boomers are slowly dying off while younger people have been overwhelmingly against Trumpism. Is this really the case? My understanding, based on voting data, is that Gen Z was overwhelming for Trump and Trumpism. If anything, Baby Boomers have gone way more left than they have been in previous elections.

warner25 2y ago
I've seen no data showing Gen Z support for Trump, and I'm interested if you have some. I'm seeing[1] an 11 point lead for Harris among the age 18-29 group. That's much more narrow, of course, than the margins in 2016 and 2020, so I guess Gen Z is more supportive of Trump than Millenials were at the same age. [1] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls

shkkmo 2y ago

> younger people have been overwhelmingly against Trumpism. Young people (18-29) are the age demographic where Trump made his biggest gain from 2020 to 2024. The only demographic where Harris had gains as the oldest demographic. So while democrats still won the young vote, the trend is in the opposite direction.

warner25 2y ago
Fair point about the trend, yes. And thanks for pointing out that Harris actually made gains with Boomers; I've verified that and updated my mental model.

heyjamesknight 2y ago

Gen X voted Trump more than any other generation. Millenials are shifting that way.

warner25 2y ago
You appear to be correct; thanks for pointing it out. I'm now seeing[1] a 10 point lead for Trump among ages 45-64, and a tie among ages 65+. My mental model was still based on the 2016 and 2020 numbers. [1] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls
jasondigitized 2y ago
and they will shift back like amnesic goldfish. rinse. repeat.

shiroiushi 2y ago

>Boomers are slowly dying off while younger people have been overwhelmingly against Trumpism. No they aren't. Gen Z young men are all voting for Trump. >America is getting more diverse and more educated Diverse maybe, educated no. They're getting more college degrees than 50+ years ago I suppose, but they're not worth much compared to college degrees in the past. These days, college just makes up for utterly lousy secondary school education. Educational standards in the US have been in decline for a very long time.

johnnyanmac 2y ago
Not from what I've seen. But I get why you think that https://www.axios.com/2024/09/28/gen-z-men-conservative-poll https://www.axios.com/2024/09/28/gen-z-men-conservative-poll Just look at the headline. But the numbers just saying "18-24 are slighyly more conservative than 24-30". While the lion's share simply say they are moderate. So it can really swing any which way. As another statitic: https://i.redd.it/6sekbauh9uec1.jpeg https://i.redd.it/6sekbauh9uec1.jpeg Only up to 2020, but for the US you see that liberalism for men only stagnated in 2020, not shift conservative. South Korea... I have no clue what has happened. > These days, college just makes up for utterly lousy secondary school education. A bit questionable (I reckon lousy grade school just means less college, and college participation rates are decreasing), but I do agree that secondary education has utterly tarnished its standards. NCLB can't even explain this horrible drop.
warner25 2y ago
> Gen Z young men are all voting for Trump. From the exit poll data, I see a 2 point lead for Trump among men age 18-29. That's interesting, but probably also within the margin of error. (For women in that range it's an overwhelming 24 point lead for Harris, making the overall support for Harris in that group pretty strong, albeit not as strong as I thought and much weaker than in 2020 and 2016.) > ...more college degrees... Yes, and regardless of your opinion of them, this has been inversely correlated with support for Trump. This has not changed from 2016, to 2020, to 2024.
- shiroiushi 2y ago