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Apologies if you thought I meant this. I was using them as a reference for what people modeling the election from polls were predicting! I don't know what Nate
by theurerjohn3 2y ago
Apologies if you thought I meant this. I was using them as a reference for what people modeling the election from polls were predicting!
I don't know what Nate Silver was predicting. Was he predicting a near-split election or the situation where "someone is decently likely to win decisively, but we don't know who"?
- ecshafer 2y agoFair enough. Nate Silver was predicting a toss up, but was upfront that the model uses many simulations. Since the GP mentioned Nate Silver, I mistakenly took your comment about 538 as disagreeing with that since Silver did used to run 538.
- joelthelion 2y agoSilver's predictions were extremely close to 538's. He predicted a toss up (50-50% chance of Harris or Trump winning the presidency), but many of his simulations were not particularly close.