4 ms·

When all is said and done I bet Gaza had very little effect on overall D turnout. If it did, those that either sat out or voted R specifically because of Gaza d

When all is said and done I bet Gaza had very little effect on overall D turnout. If it did, those that either sat out or voted R specifically because of Gaza did so to spite their face. An R administration will turn their backs on a lot of geopolitical happenings and let those involved run wild, of which the Palestinians will have little to no voice at all. Also people vastly underestimate the political calculus in full throated support of Palestinians and by association, Hamas. There is a whole other side of this conflict and that is with Jews who also care about the resolution, but also care about Israel and the fact they've had rockets constantly fired into their territory. They also vote overwhelmingly D. You alienate one group for another and you've made no ground in terms of voter share.

lanternfish 2y ago
Exit polls, especially in Michigan, seem to disagree with this.
- halfmatthalfcat 2y ago
  Wayne County was never going to be the lynch pin of the election and even so, exit polling is notoriously fickle. If we're taking exit polling at face value, across the country the economy was #1 followed by preserving democracy and immigration. Geopolitics is probably at the bottom of the top 10 nationally.
  - knodi 2y ago
    Dearborn alone voted 50% for Trump, 22% for Jill and 28% for Harris. Thats 50-100k votes right there. A clear message and an axe to the foot of Palestine.
    - halfmatthalfcat 2y ago
      Looking at the Dearborn results[1], it looks like Jill pulled 10k votes at 20%. That's not winning MI. [1] https://dearborn.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/UNOFFICIAL%20Results_Nov%205%202024%20Presidential%20Election%20-%20ALL%20-%20ELECTION%20DAY_City%20of%20Dearborn.pdf https://dearborn.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/UNOFFICIAL%...
      - lanternfish 2y ago
        No, but you have to consider that the voted-for-jill-stein signal is considerably dampened from the didn't-vote-for-harris-because-of-Palestine signal; most of those people just wouldn't vote at all
        aguaviva 2y ago
        Sounds more than plausible, and indeed likely. It's also quite possible that Biden's gaffe in calling Trump supporters "garbage", on its own, dinged Harris's campaign more than all the fallout from the Israel-Gaza conflict. Just to give a sense of what really moves the needle in American politics.

lanternfish 2y ago

Exit polls, especially in Michigan, seem to disagree with this.

halfmatthalfcat 2y ago
Wayne County was never going to be the lynch pin of the election and even so, exit polling is notoriously fickle. If we're taking exit polling at face value, across the country the economy was #1 followed by preserving democracy and immigration. Geopolitics is probably at the bottom of the top 10 nationally.
- knodi 2y ago
  Dearborn alone voted 50% for Trump, 22% for Jill and 28% for Harris. Thats 50-100k votes right there. A clear message and an axe to the foot of Palestine.
  - halfmatthalfcat 2y ago
    Looking at the Dearborn results[1], it looks like Jill pulled 10k votes at 20%. That's not winning MI. [1] https://dearborn.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/UNOFFICIAL%20Results_Nov%205%202024%20Presidential%20Election%20-%20ALL%20-%20ELECTION%20DAY_City%20of%20Dearborn.pdf https://dearborn.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/UNOFFICIAL%...
    - lanternfish 2y ago
      No, but you have to consider that the voted-for-jill-stein signal is considerably dampened from the didn't-vote-for-harris-because-of-Palestine signal; most of those people just wouldn't vote at all
      - aguaviva 2y ago
        Sounds more than plausible, and indeed likely. It's also quite possible that Biden's gaffe in calling Trump supporters "garbage", on its own, dinged Harris's campaign more than all the fallout from the Israel-Gaza conflict. Just to give a sense of what really moves the needle in American politics.