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I don't know what to tell you, except that you're simply wrong about how pricing works. I don't know where you got this idea that pricing history gives you all

I don't know what to tell you, except that you're simply wrong about how pricing works. I don't know where you got this idea that pricing history gives you all the information you need to invest, but it's not what a single professional investor, economist, or financial executive would tell you. Not one. If you want to learn how pricing works, you might want to start here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asset_pricing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asset_pricing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valuation_(finance) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valuation_(finance) In fact, it's precisely to try to correct misconceptions such as yours that a lot of financial instruments put the disclaimer "Past performance is no guarantee of future results." Because it's so easy for people who don't know any better to imagine otherwise.

Geee 2y ago
As I said, this does not apply to monetary assets, which don't have returns or expected future returns, like gold or bitcoin. In addition, these assets do not change. There are no news. All we know is how the price has behaved in different market conditions, and investors try to create models based on that alone. I didn't say that the future price could be predicted or that it is guaranteed. I just said that the historical price information should contain all the relevant information about the asset. There is obviously fascinating history about why gold has become valuable and what fundamental properties caused it to become valuable, but it's not really relevant to investors. Same applies to Bitcoin.
- crazygringo 2y ago
  > There are no news... I just said that the historical price information should contain all the relevant information about the asset. No, the news is changes in supply and demand, and the factors behind those changes, and how we expect those to change in the future. Those determine the current and future prices. And those are not contained in historical price data. Historical price data is irrelevant to those. Good luck with your investing.
  - Geee 2y ago
    That's information about the market, not about the asset. Good luck to you too.
    - karmakurtisaani 2y ago
      The market defines the price, not the asset..
      - Geee 2y ago
        There's information about the market, like interest rates and whatever is happening in politics and how the economy is doing. Then there is information about assets, which might change or not change. Gold and bitcoin react to information about the market, because these assets don't really change.

Geee 2y ago

As I said, this does not apply to monetary assets, which don't have returns or expected future returns, like gold or bitcoin. In addition, these assets do not change. There are no news. All we know is how the price has behaved in different market conditions, and investors try to create models based on that alone. I didn't say that the future price could be predicted or that it is guaranteed. I just said that the historical price information should contain all the relevant information about the asset. There is obviously fascinating history about why gold has become valuable and what fundamental properties caused it to become valuable, but it's not really relevant to investors. Same applies to Bitcoin.

crazygringo 2y ago
> There are no news... I just said that the historical price information should contain all the relevant information about the asset. No, the news is changes in supply and demand, and the factors behind those changes, and how we expect those to change in the future. Those determine the current and future prices. And those are not contained in historical price data. Historical price data is irrelevant to those. Good luck with your investing.
- Geee 2y ago
  That's information about the market, not about the asset. Good luck to you too.
  - karmakurtisaani 2y ago
    The market defines the price, not the asset..
    - Geee 2y ago
      There's information about the market, like interest rates and whatever is happening in politics and how the economy is doing. Then there is information about assets, which might change or not change. Gold and bitcoin react to information about the market, because these assets don't really change.