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538 is not longer run by Nate Silver, he runs the silver bulletin on substack now.
by ecshafer 2y ago
538 is not longer run by Nate Silver, he runs the silver bulletin on substack now.
- theurerjohn3 2y agoApologies if you thought I meant this. I was using them as a reference for what people modeling the election from polls were predicting! I don't know what Nate Silver was predicting. Was he predicting a near-split election or the situation where "someone is decently likely to win decisively, but we don't know who"?
- ecshafer 2y agoFair enough. Nate Silver was predicting a toss up, but was upfront that the model uses many simulations. Since the GP mentioned Nate Silver, I mistakenly took your comment about 538 as disagreeing with that since Silver did used to run 538.
- joelthelion 2y agoSilver's predictions were extremely close to 538's. He predicted a toss up (50-50% chance of Harris or Trump winning the presidency), but many of his simulations were not particularly close.