4 ms·

> Donbas and Crimea is the price of avoiding Nuclear war On the contrary, the risk of nuclear war increases when Putin gets Donbas and Crimea. Because what he

by nickpp 2y ago

> Donbas and Crimea is the price of avoiding Nuclear war On the contrary, the risk of nuclear war increases when Putin gets Donbas and Crimea. Because what he wants next will be even more valuable to nations with nukes. Appeasing sounds great but at some point you run out of other people's countries.

cynicalpeace 2y ago
The Neville Chamberlain comparison has been used to involve us in every major war since WWII and literally all of them turned out to be total disasters. It's like Charlie Brown and the football.
- geoka9 2y ago
  One could argue there have been no major war since WWII and the belief in the futility of appeasement is exactly the reason.
  - cynicalpeace 2y ago
    [flagged]
    - nickpp 2y ago
      So what's your message for the Ukrainians being bombed, their homes destroyed and families killed? What should they do? Pack up and leave, take refuge in other countries? Just give up and stay under the Russian boot, obey when taken to fight in meat waves against their neighbors? What would you do in their place?
      - cynicalpeace 2y ago
        I would fight like hell and ask for help. I've watched a lot of their go pro videos those guys are savages. They have my utmost respect But I'm not Ukrainian. I'm American.
      - wvbdmp 2y ago
        > Pack up and leave, take refuge in other countries? Just give up and stay under the Russian boot, obey when taken to fight in meat waves against their neighbors? Like a great, great many things, possibly most things, these options beat a hot war at your home by a wide margin. So, yes? Comparisons to WWII only hold if you honestly believe that this is a full-on war of extermination, but if you believe that, the world should have sent troops ages ago. It isn’t and any horrors of war we see now are just standard fare for war anywhere ever and wouldn’t have happened if Ukraine had forfeited immediately. Instead they’re destroying their country and their people to save the intellectual constructs of their borders and administration. The biosphere would prefer that trade-off reversed. > obey when taken to fight in meat waves against their neighbors? Isn’t this what they’re doing right now?
        geoka9 2y ago
        > Instead they’re destroying their country and their people to save the intellectual constructs of their borders and administration. What's happening in the occupied territories is a cultural genocide along with the execution of activists. Everything culturally Ukrainian is stamped out and every time Russians are pushed back from a town, mass graves are uncovered. To add to that, after a few years the men in the occupied territories are pressed into the Russian army and sent in meat wave attacks westward. For example, the towns in Eastern Donbass, that has been occupied since 2014, are nearly void of male population by now.
kgeist 2y ago
Putin himself is already tired of the war. He just doesn't see a way out where he can save the face. He wanted it to be a 3 day campaign, remember? I have doubts Putin is eager to start Ukraine War 2.0
- nickpp 2y ago
  Russian conquest wars in the last 30 years: Chechnya 1994–1996 and 1999–2009, Georgia 2008 (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) & Ukraine (2014 - today). If Putin ever gets tired of war, he seems to quicky recover and start again.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
- geoka9 2y ago
  Russia wants a few years of respite, ideally without sanctions and with the Ukraine military stripped to the studs, so that its own military can regroup and finish the job in a few years. Once that happens, the rest of Eastern Europe will be next and the Ukrainians will be first in the meat wave attacks, just like their compatriots from Eastern Donbass in 2022 (it has been occupied by Russia since 2014 and by now the towns there are nearly void of male population).
  - cynicalpeace 2y ago
    > the rest of Eastern Europe will be next Do you have any evidence of these plans?
    - jiggawatts 2y ago
      They literally showed them during the first days of the war. There was a press conference where they accidentally showed a diagram with arrows continuing through Ukraine into Transnistria, which is Moldova's equivalent of the Donbass. You have to be very ignorant of geopolitics to think that there aren't more countries like Ukraine that Russia would like to return to their empire. Some might join voluntarily but many -- like Kazakhstan -- won't without a fight. Unlike Ukraine, most of the others are not conveniently next to Europe and hence will be impractical for western nations to support. After Ukraine falls, Moldova is next, and then the various -stans will be rolled up in quick succession. This will create a Soviet Union 2.0, which will be a net positive for Russia, and a mixed bag for the rest of the world. It'll likely be a net negative for Europe, which is why they're supporting Ukraine now.
hajile 2y ago
I don't understand this perspective. Russia is gettin North Korean troops to fight for them because they are losing so bad, but Russia is also an aggressive superpower hell-bent on invading even more countries with far better defenses than Ukraine. This isn't accounting for Russia's disastrous demographics problem. The biggest reason they are moving so slowly is because they can build new artillery, but are demographically forced to do everything they can to minimize casualties. It also isn't accounting for Russia trying to get a permanent peace deal 2 months into the conflict. That's not the behavior of a country bent on conquest. Finally, I can't take people seriously when they are basically asserting that Russia believed they could take over all of Eastern Europe with just ~200,000 troops. When Ukraine changed from regime toppling to an actual war, Russia was caught with their pants down. They had to hire Wagner and draft prisoners to buy time to start pushing soldiers through training. If they'd been planning some large invasion campaign, they would have started serious troop training a handful of years prior and have millions of already-trained troops.
- cynicalpeace 2y ago
  > I don't understand this perspective. It's because it's not based on fact. These people (rightly so) hate Putin. But just because you hate Putin does not mean he is capable or intending to be Hitler. Same actually goes for Trump actually. Just because you don't like the guy doesn't mean he's literally Hitler.
  - nickpp 2y ago
    As someone who lives in a country neighboring Ukraine, hosted Ukrainian refugees and heard the stories about what is happening in occupied territories directly from escaped friends and relatives, (some of the older ones still remembering stories about nazi occupants), let me tell you one thing: you are massively underestimating Putin. And that is a fact.
    - valval 2y ago
      What kind of stories do you think the refugees from Donbas are telling in Russia? Did you know that those stories are why this war is ongoing? I’m asking rhetorical questions because I know you have a biased view on the topic. You’ve long forgotten the humanity of the other side because of the propaganda.

by nickpp 2y ago

cynicalpeace 2y ago

The Neville Chamberlain comparison has been used to involve us in every major war since WWII and literally all of them turned out to be total disasters. It's like Charlie Brown and the football.

geoka9 2y ago
One could argue there have been no major war since WWII and the belief in the futility of appeasement is exactly the reason.
- cynicalpeace 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - nickpp 2y ago
    So what's your message for the Ukrainians being bombed, their homes destroyed and families killed? What should they do? Pack up and leave, take refuge in other countries? Just give up and stay under the Russian boot, obey when taken to fight in meat waves against their neighbors? What would you do in their place?
    - cynicalpeace 2y ago
      I would fight like hell and ask for help. I've watched a lot of their go pro videos those guys are savages. They have my utmost respect But I'm not Ukrainian. I'm American.
    - wvbdmp 2y ago
      > Pack up and leave, take refuge in other countries? Just give up and stay under the Russian boot, obey when taken to fight in meat waves against their neighbors? Like a great, great many things, possibly most things, these options beat a hot war at your home by a wide margin. So, yes? Comparisons to WWII only hold if you honestly believe that this is a full-on war of extermination, but if you believe that, the world should have sent troops ages ago. It isn’t and any horrors of war we see now are just standard fare for war anywhere ever and wouldn’t have happened if Ukraine had forfeited immediately. Instead they’re destroying their country and their people to save the intellectual constructs of their borders and administration. The biosphere would prefer that trade-off reversed. > obey when taken to fight in meat waves against their neighbors? Isn’t this what they’re doing right now?
      - geoka9 2y ago
        > Instead they’re destroying their country and their people to save the intellectual constructs of their borders and administration. What's happening in the occupied territories is a cultural genocide along with the execution of activists. Everything culturally Ukrainian is stamped out and every time Russians are pushed back from a town, mass graves are uncovered. To add to that, after a few years the men in the occupied territories are pressed into the Russian army and sent in meat wave attacks westward. For example, the towns in Eastern Donbass, that has been occupied since 2014, are nearly void of male population by now.

kgeist 2y ago

Putin himself is already tired of the war. He just doesn't see a way out where he can save the face. He wanted it to be a 3 day campaign, remember? I have doubts Putin is eager to start Ukraine War 2.0

nickpp 2y ago
Russian conquest wars in the last 30 years: Chechnya 1994–1996 and 1999–2009, Georgia 2008 (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) & Ukraine (2014 - today). If Putin ever gets tired of war, he seems to quicky recover and start again.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
geoka9 2y ago
Russia wants a few years of respite, ideally without sanctions and with the Ukraine military stripped to the studs, so that its own military can regroup and finish the job in a few years. Once that happens, the rest of Eastern Europe will be next and the Ukrainians will be first in the meat wave attacks, just like their compatriots from Eastern Donbass in 2022 (it has been occupied by Russia since 2014 and by now the towns there are nearly void of male population).
- cynicalpeace 2y ago
  > the rest of Eastern Europe will be next Do you have any evidence of these plans?
  - jiggawatts 2y ago
    They literally showed them during the first days of the war. There was a press conference where they accidentally showed a diagram with arrows continuing through Ukraine into Transnistria, which is Moldova's equivalent of the Donbass. You have to be very ignorant of geopolitics to think that there aren't more countries like Ukraine that Russia would like to return to their empire. Some might join voluntarily but many -- like Kazakhstan -- won't without a fight. Unlike Ukraine, most of the others are not conveniently next to Europe and hence will be impractical for western nations to support. After Ukraine falls, Moldova is next, and then the various -stans will be rolled up in quick succession. This will create a Soviet Union 2.0, which will be a net positive for Russia, and a mixed bag for the rest of the world. It'll likely be a net negative for Europe, which is why they're supporting Ukraine now.

hajile 2y ago

I don't understand this perspective. Russia is gettin North Korean troops to fight for them because they are losing so bad, but Russia is also an aggressive superpower hell-bent on invading even more countries with far better defenses than Ukraine. This isn't accounting for Russia's disastrous demographics problem. The biggest reason they are moving so slowly is because they can build new artillery, but are demographically forced to do everything they can to minimize casualties. It also isn't accounting for Russia trying to get a permanent peace deal 2 months into the conflict. That's not the behavior of a country bent on conquest. Finally, I can't take people seriously when they are basically asserting that Russia believed they could take over all of Eastern Europe with just ~200,000 troops. When Ukraine changed from regime toppling to an actual war, Russia was caught with their pants down. They had to hire Wagner and draft prisoners to buy time to start pushing soldiers through training. If they'd been planning some large invasion campaign, they would have started serious troop training a handful of years prior and have millions of already-trained troops.

cynicalpeace 2y ago
> I don't understand this perspective. It's because it's not based on fact. These people (rightly so) hate Putin. But just because you hate Putin does not mean he is capable or intending to be Hitler. Same actually goes for Trump actually. Just because you don't like the guy doesn't mean he's literally Hitler.
- nickpp 2y ago
  As someone who lives in a country neighboring Ukraine, hosted Ukrainian refugees and heard the stories about what is happening in occupied territories directly from escaped friends and relatives, (some of the older ones still remembering stories about nazi occupants), let me tell you one thing: you are massively underestimating Putin. And that is a fact.
  - valval 2y ago
    What kind of stories do you think the refugees from Donbas are telling in Russia? Did you know that those stories are why this war is ongoing? I’m asking rhetorical questions because I know you have a biased view on the topic. You’ve long forgotten the humanity of the other side because of the propaganda.