3 ms·
Iowa was polling at +3 Harris. Trump won it +13. Not even close to margin of error.
by codexb 2y ago
Iowa was polling at +3 Harris. Trump won it +13. Not even close to margin of error.
- delecti 2y agoThat was one poll which was wildly out of line with all other polls. All of the polls had Trump ahead there. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/iowa/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general... (No intended endorsement of 538, they're just a convenient list of polls)
- codexb 2y agoThere were a large number of “herded” polls that basically all predicted the exact same results as 2016 and 2020 (Trump +5/+8). So, not really even within the margin of error. There weren’t any predicting +15. And the high quality polls that didn’t attempt to synthesize results to match past results were even more wrong.