7 ms·

It will almost certainly accelerate inflation, but won’t it also give domestic manufacturing workers hurt by globalization a lot more demand for their work, and

by ericd 2y ago

It will almost certainly accelerate inflation, but won’t it also give domestic manufacturing workers hurt by globalization a lot more demand for their work, and leverage to increase their wages? It seems like the main people hurt by this would be the upper middle class and above, the execs, designers, and managers who’ve directly and indirectly managed large international teams of laborers working at low rates, as they’ll get hit by the inflation, but see no additional demand/leverage to increase their wages. They’re the part of the bimodal wealth distribution that has until now done very well by globalization, and I think this election is largely a reaction by the other mode.

no_wizard 2y ago
It hurts everyone, the price shocks will be felt for years, and any gains that can be made won't matter. Wage gains won't keep pace with any price increases either, Republican's have already outlined policies that are regressive to average Americans[0][1] About the only thing tariffs will do is consolidate power at the top and allow the largest corporations to buy out smaller ones that can't cope as well. We are remember, talking about broad spectrum tariffs here, which will hit any import, from food to solar panels. [0]: https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/32a303df-1977-4870-8332-cb75029c64c9/how-project-2025-s-economic-policies-hurt-the-middle-class.pdf https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/32a303df-1977... [1]: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/10/30/trump-reduced-access-to-overtime-project-2025-would-go-further/75795188007/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/10/30/trump-reduce...
- ericd 2y ago
  That JEC doc doesn’t seem to mention tariffs? Yes, prices will rise, the question is whether it will increase their leverage in the job market enough to boost their earnings enough to counteract the higher prices.
  - no_wizard 2y ago
    my point with the JEC wasn't about tariffs its about Republican policies that show that "will it increase their leverage in the job market enough to boost their earnings enough to counteract the higher prices" is fantasy The highest levels of leadership of the Republican party have shown time and again that they want a permanent poor underclass through their policies (both enacted and proposed) and actions. There's no sense in speculation here, if they can put the boot on labors neck, they will 100% of the time
    - ericd 2y ago
      I mean, we were just talking about tariffs, not whatever else may be in their plans. But point taken, you think that the net result will be worse for poor people. I don’t necessarily disagree, it just seems that this one bit might be somewhat positive for the poor.
      - no_wizard 2y ago
        The net result will be worse for all people except those in power
xnx 2y ago
> won’t it also give domestic manufacturing workers hurt by globalization a lot more demand for their work Temporarily perhaps, the push for automation in manufacturing (and farm operations) will be very strong.
tayo42 2y ago
I don't think the US is the only place where US companies sell things. What about when tariffs are placed on US items, demand will drop with US made things.
- ericd 2y ago
  It’s not, but our balance of trade is very deeply negative. We import a lot more than we export. Partly because our currency is kept artificially strong by reserve currency status, preventing our exports from becoming more competitive when we go deeply into debt.
  - tayo42 2y ago
    we import some important things though right now. Like a lot of our food. I don't think we can turnover all of the inedible corn we grow for real food? I can't imagine there will be iphone factories all of the sudden in the US. Those kinds of items effect people day to day.
    - ericd 2y ago
      Yeah, it'd probably be at least a bit messy.
    - samatman 2y ago
      What real food are you thinking of exactly? I look in my refrigerator and I see a couple cheeses from Europe, butter from Ireland (and from the USA), a Belgian beer I still have around, and food from the US. We are, as a nation, completely self sufficient in food production, we turn a bunch of corn into ethanol (very stupid) and export enormous amounts of foodstuffs of all kinds. There are very few nations, in fact, who could completely close their borders, in and out, and feed themselves. American could do this easily, furthermore, there would be widespread and worldwide starvation if we stopped exporting (no one wants to do this, just making a point). This is such an odd claim to make.
      - tayo42 2y ago
anigbrowl 2y ago
No. You can't just wave a magic wand and order manufacturing home. Capitalists exported a lot of skill and industrial infrastructure to overseas markets, which can't be rebuilt overnight. There was talk about this in the first term too, and it ended up with a lot of money from tariffs being used to subsidize farmers because they found themselves doing so poorly that suicides spiked.
- ericd 2y ago
  Right, it seems likely to be disruptive in the short term, and there would be skill shortages and big holes in the domestic supply chain. I mean more abstractly/directionally. It does seem like it’d be best if it was phased in predictably over a longer period of time, but doesn’t seem like that’s the plan.
  - ericd 2y ago
    Elon at least seems to be against sudden implementation of tariffs, he wants them phased in in a predictable over time, he talks about exactly this near the end of his JRE interview: https://youtu.be/7qZl_5xHoBw?si=0XNnSP8psUtXLK2K&t=8426 https://youtu.be/7qZl_5xHoBw?si=0XNnSP8psUtXLK2K&t=8426 They also talk about the problems of losing competitive pressure from protectionist systems.

by ericd 2y ago

no_wizard 2y ago

It hurts everyone, the price shocks will be felt for years, and any gains that can be made won't matter. Wage gains won't keep pace with any price increases either, Republican's have already outlined policies that are regressive to average Americans[0][1] About the only thing tariffs will do is consolidate power at the top and allow the largest corporations to buy out smaller ones that can't cope as well. We are remember, talking about broad spectrum tariffs here, which will hit any import, from food to solar panels. [0]: https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/32a303df-1977-4870-8332-cb75029c64c9/how-project-2025-s-economic-policies-hurt-the-middle-class.pdf https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/32a303df-1977... [1]: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/10/30/trump-reduced-access-to-overtime-project-2025-would-go-further/75795188007/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/10/30/trump-reduce...

ericd 2y ago
That JEC doc doesn’t seem to mention tariffs? Yes, prices will rise, the question is whether it will increase their leverage in the job market enough to boost their earnings enough to counteract the higher prices.
- no_wizard 2y ago
  my point with the JEC wasn't about tariffs its about Republican policies that show that "will it increase their leverage in the job market enough to boost their earnings enough to counteract the higher prices" is fantasy The highest levels of leadership of the Republican party have shown time and again that they want a permanent poor underclass through their policies (both enacted and proposed) and actions. There's no sense in speculation here, if they can put the boot on labors neck, they will 100% of the time
  - ericd 2y ago
    I mean, we were just talking about tariffs, not whatever else may be in their plans. But point taken, you think that the net result will be worse for poor people. I don’t necessarily disagree, it just seems that this one bit might be somewhat positive for the poor.
    - no_wizard 2y ago
      The net result will be worse for all people except those in power

xnx 2y ago

> won’t it also give domestic manufacturing workers hurt by globalization a lot more demand for their work Temporarily perhaps, the push for automation in manufacturing (and farm operations) will be very strong.

tayo42 2y ago

I don't think the US is the only place where US companies sell things. What about when tariffs are placed on US items, demand will drop with US made things.

ericd 2y ago
It’s not, but our balance of trade is very deeply negative. We import a lot more than we export. Partly because our currency is kept artificially strong by reserve currency status, preventing our exports from becoming more competitive when we go deeply into debt.
- tayo42 2y ago
  we import some important things though right now. Like a lot of our food. I don't think we can turnover all of the inedible corn we grow for real food? I can't imagine there will be iphone factories all of the sudden in the US. Those kinds of items effect people day to day.
  - ericd 2y ago
    Yeah, it'd probably be at least a bit messy.
  - samatman 2y ago
    What real food are you thinking of exactly? I look in my refrigerator and I see a couple cheeses from Europe, butter from Ireland (and from the USA), a Belgian beer I still have around, and food from the US. We are, as a nation, completely self sufficient in food production, we turn a bunch of corn into ethanol (very stupid) and export enormous amounts of foodstuffs of all kinds. There are very few nations, in fact, who could completely close their borders, in and out, and feed themselves. American could do this easily, furthermore, there would be widespread and worldwide starvation if we stopped exporting (no one wants to do this, just making a point). This is such an odd claim to make.
    - tayo42 2y ago

anigbrowl 2y ago

No. You can't just wave a magic wand and order manufacturing home. Capitalists exported a lot of skill and industrial infrastructure to overseas markets, which can't be rebuilt overnight. There was talk about this in the first term too, and it ended up with a lot of money from tariffs being used to subsidize farmers because they found themselves doing so poorly that suicides spiked.

ericd 2y ago
Right, it seems likely to be disruptive in the short term, and there would be skill shortages and big holes in the domestic supply chain. I mean more abstractly/directionally. It does seem like it’d be best if it was phased in predictably over a longer period of time, but doesn’t seem like that’s the plan.
- ericd 2y ago
  Elon at least seems to be against sudden implementation of tariffs, he wants them phased in in a predictable over time, he talks about exactly this near the end of his JRE interview: https://youtu.be/7qZl_5xHoBw?si=0XNnSP8psUtXLK2K&t=8426 https://youtu.be/7qZl_5xHoBw?si=0XNnSP8psUtXLK2K&t=8426 They also talk about the problems of losing competitive pressure from protectionist systems.