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Vegas and prediction markets consistently had Trump as the favorites. Polling companies are in the business of media deals and government contracts. They will

Vegas and prediction markets consistently had Trump as the favorites. Polling companies are in the business of media deals and government contracts. They will develop methodology and reporting to that end and the money is in "a close and contested race", even if it won't be.

dredmorbius 2y ago
Flipside: prediction markets absolutely missed Harris's pick of Walz. I'd looked those up at the time. Of course, if we want to assess which methodology is more accurate, we'll need more than two cherry-picked examples. Methodologically, prediction markets are nonrandom sampling from a pool of self-selected rich people (those with sufficient discretionary income to place bets), tempered by several influences, among which profit motive is only one. See the case of assassination markets for potential confounding factors: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market> And from what I'm familiar with in other forms of gaming, gamblers often lose, and often bigly. There is some research on the question: David M. Rothschild, "Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and Their Biases", January 2009, Public Opinion Quarterly 73(5). DOI:10.1093/poq/nfp082 <https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228306045_Forecasting_Elections_Comparing_Prediction_Markets_Polls_and_Their_Biases https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228306045_Forecasti...> Joyce E. Berg, Forrest D. Nelson, Thomas A. Rietz, "Prediction market accuracy in the long run" International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 24, Issue 2, April–June 2008, Pages 285-300 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.03.007 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.03.007> "A model incorporating markets that allow betting on elections suggests a role in prognostications" (31 October 2024) <https://anderson-review.ucla.edu/prediction-markets-polls-economic-indicators-better-election-forecasting/ https://anderson-review.ucla.edu/prediction-markets-polls-ec...> Referencing Mikhail Chernov, Vadim Elenev, and Dongho Song, "The Comovement of Voter Preferences: Insights from U.S. Presidential Election Prediction Markets Beyond Polls" (28 October 2024) <https://anderson-review.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/voter_preferences_updated.pdf https://anderson-review.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/...> (PDF).
- rightbyte 2y ago
  > Flipside: prediction markets absolutely missed Harris's pick of Walz. A pick of VP is not easy to model as some sort of stochastic variable from sample data.
  - dredmorbius 2y ago
    Of course, if we want to assess which methodology is more accurate, we'll need more than two cherry-picked examples. <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42074220 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42074220>
    - rightbyte 2y ago
      Ahhh, sorry, somehow I thought you meant the two Vice President candidates as the 'cherries being picked'. Not the two betting examples.
      - dredmorbius 2y ago
        No, I'm referring to the blinkered focus on two specific instances of prediction. Again: a systemic review is required, and I've linked some of the extant literature.

dredmorbius 2y ago

Flipside: prediction markets absolutely missed Harris's pick of Walz. I'd looked those up at the time. Of course, if we want to assess which methodology is more accurate, we'll need more than two cherry-picked examples. Methodologically, prediction markets are nonrandom sampling from a pool of self-selected rich people (those with sufficient discretionary income to place bets), tempered by several influences, among which profit motive is only one. See the case of assassination markets for potential confounding factors: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market> And from what I'm familiar with in other forms of gaming, gamblers often lose, and often bigly. There is some research on the question: David M. Rothschild, "Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and Their Biases", January 2009, Public Opinion Quarterly 73(5). DOI:10.1093/poq/nfp082 <https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228306045_Forecasting_Elections_Comparing_Prediction_Markets_Polls_and_Their_Biases https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228306045_Forecasti...> Joyce E. Berg, Forrest D. Nelson, Thomas A. Rietz, "Prediction market accuracy in the long run" International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 24, Issue 2, April–June 2008, Pages 285-300 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.03.007 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.03.007> "A model incorporating markets that allow betting on elections suggests a role in prognostications" (31 October 2024) <https://anderson-review.ucla.edu/prediction-markets-polls-economic-indicators-better-election-forecasting/ https://anderson-review.ucla.edu/prediction-markets-polls-ec...> Referencing Mikhail Chernov, Vadim Elenev, and Dongho Song, "The Comovement of Voter Preferences: Insights from U.S. Presidential Election Prediction Markets Beyond Polls" (28 October 2024) <https://anderson-review.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/voter_preferences_updated.pdf https://anderson-review.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/...> (PDF).

rightbyte 2y ago
> Flipside: prediction markets absolutely missed Harris's pick of Walz. A pick of VP is not easy to model as some sort of stochastic variable from sample data.
- dredmorbius 2y ago
  Of course, if we want to assess which methodology is more accurate, we'll need more than two cherry-picked examples. <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42074220 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42074220>
  - rightbyte 2y ago
    Ahhh, sorry, somehow I thought you meant the two Vice President candidates as the 'cherries being picked'. Not the two betting examples.
    - dredmorbius 2y ago
      No, I'm referring to the blinkered focus on two specific instances of prediction. Again: a systemic review is required, and I've linked some of the extant literature.