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Yep. The most interesting phenomena in all most all electoral history is the Obama-Obama-Trump-Trump-Trump voters (those that voted Obama twice, then Trump thri

by ak_111 2y ago

Yep. The most interesting phenomena in all most all electoral history is the Obama-Obama-Trump-Trump-Trump voters (those that voted Obama twice, then Trump thrice). It is probably 1-2% of the electorate but probably 5-10% in most swing states. Democrats should study those people very very intensely and understand how they lost them. It was exceptionally radical to vote for Obama in 2008, people were calling him a cupboard muslim and terrorist sympathiser. They really believed he will deliver change and create a decisive break with neoliberal policy (both domestic and foreign), it is quite amazing that exactly these voters would vote 3 times for Trump after that. Yet apart from Obamacare Obama delivered basically zero change in foreign or domestic policy. You simply can't take voters who went out of their way to vote for you for granted in this way and expect there won't be a backlash.

eadmund 2y ago
> It was exceptionally radical to vote for Obama in 2008 What are you talking about? He got 68% of the electors; 53% of the population voted for him. That’s not radical: that’s mainstream.
- ak_111 2y ago
  Yes exactly I meant for some people it was very radical to vote for him despite the aggressive McCain/Palin campaign that was painting him as a black foreigner cupboard muslim with a strange un-american name. Imagine those white, MAGA ultra-anti-woke Trump supporters. Some of these voted for Obama twice there is a whole wikipedia page about it. They would be like a feminist Ivy League literature professor voting for Trump now, relative to her demographic it is very radical. The fact that Obama won so much of electorate implies that there were quite a lot of people who radically went against their usual political leaning. Those voters gave him the benefit of the doubt that he would shake the system.
chubot 2y ago
Hm that's kind of interesting, what's your source for this phenomenon? It sounds plausible, but I haven't seen anyone discuss it
- ak_111 2y ago
  It is well known phenomena: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obama%E2%80%93Trump_voters https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obama%E2%80%93Trump_voters although anecdotally most people know people personally that voted Obama then Trump. Obama was very much a populist outsider in his original campaign, he even pioneered devious social media ad targeting.

by ak_111 2y ago

eadmund 2y ago

> It was exceptionally radical to vote for Obama in 2008 What are you talking about? He got 68% of the electors; 53% of the population voted for him. That’s not radical: that’s mainstream.

ak_111 2y ago
Yes exactly I meant for some people it was very radical to vote for him despite the aggressive McCain/Palin campaign that was painting him as a black foreigner cupboard muslim with a strange un-american name. Imagine those white, MAGA ultra-anti-woke Trump supporters. Some of these voted for Obama twice there is a whole wikipedia page about it. They would be like a feminist Ivy League literature professor voting for Trump now, relative to her demographic it is very radical. The fact that Obama won so much of electorate implies that there were quite a lot of people who radically went against their usual political leaning. Those voters gave him the benefit of the doubt that he would shake the system.

chubot 2y ago

Hm that's kind of interesting, what's your source for this phenomenon? It sounds plausible, but I haven't seen anyone discuss it

ak_111 2y ago
It is well known phenomena: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obama%E2%80%93Trump_voters https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obama%E2%80%93Trump_voters although anecdotally most people know people personally that voted Obama then Trump. Obama was very much a populist outsider in his original campaign, he even pioneered devious social media ad targeting.