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Someone pointed out online, I forgot who, that the problem with job reports is two fold It reports only those actively looking for a job or employed, so it lea

Someone pointed out online, I forgot who, that the problem with job reports is two fold It reports only those actively looking for a job or employed, so it leaves out people who simply aren’t participating in the labor market anymore because they can’t find one. It also reports all jobs, not the quality of the jobs. Average Americans feel the job market today is terrible and largely does not look at part time and near minimum wage work roles growing as a positive. The jobs report doesn’t disaggregate higher paying jobs from lower ones

bryanlarsen 2y ago
> The jobs report doesn’t disaggregate higher paying jobs from lower ones Yes it does, and it shows that the fastest growing wages are in the bottom 10%.
- no_wizard 2y ago
  It breaks by sector and averages wave growth but doesn’t disaggregate actual by the numbers for each sector and their loss / gross as far I can tell. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm We can make assumptions though and yes I agree it shows that trend. Even if I’m misinterpreting this my general assertion about people’s feeling about the job reports that I’m telegraphing I think still remains valid
  - mrguyorama 2y ago
    "I've been demonstrably wrong in every single point but I'm still right because I feel like it" is such a good demonstration of what happened this election. Some people are hurting because there's always some people hurting, and for some reason that means we get the party that wants to reduce social safety nets?!
astrange 2y ago
That may be true of the monthly jobs report numbers (don't remember how they work), but if you need to know then it's not an issue because there's alternatives. Here's reports for all these that don't have those issues, as they just come from surveys. > It reports only those actively looking for a job or employed, so it leaves out people who simply aren’t participating in the labor market anymore because they can’t find one. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 This simply asks "do you have a job", and it's up to the people responding to decide if being an Uber driver is a job. > Average Americans feel the job market today is terrible and largely does not look at part time and near minimum wage work roles growing as a positive. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12032196 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12032196 - % of workers part time because they couldn't find anything better https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU0203127200A https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU0203127200A - % of workers at federal minimum wage https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620 - % people with multiple jobs All look healthy right now. (Obviously there's a lot more people at the state minimum wage.) > The jobs report doesn’t disaggregate higher paying jobs from lower ones That's in FRED somewhere, but https://realtimeinequality.org https://realtimeinequality.org is an easier way to view it. Btw, I think focusing on "jobs" isn't the best thing to look at - the poorest people in a country will always be children and the elderly, and hopefully we don't want them to get jobs.
- no_wizard 2y ago
  The jobs report is what most media parrots across all media platforms more or less is the monthly jobs report and definitely the one I’m referencing. No matter how you cut it though Americans do not feel they are getting their fair share economically and want to avenge that, which is why I think voters didn’t push back against tariffs - which have become a cornerstone of economic rhetoric by Trump and his allies - at the ballot box. I think it’s also because a good chunk of the electorate doesn’t quite understand how tariffs work and it’s going to backfire, but the sentiment is very clear
  - astrange 2y ago
    Americans had what's called a vibecession where they universally thought the economy was bad, but then answered every question about their own finances by saying they were good. The implication was they thought it was bad for everyone else, just not them, so that's mostly on the media's negativity bias. There was some hangover effect from inflation, although of course that's going to get worse now.

bryanlarsen 2y ago

> The jobs report doesn’t disaggregate higher paying jobs from lower ones Yes it does, and it shows that the fastest growing wages are in the bottom 10%.

no_wizard 2y ago
It breaks by sector and averages wave growth but doesn’t disaggregate actual by the numbers for each sector and their loss / gross as far I can tell. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm We can make assumptions though and yes I agree it shows that trend. Even if I’m misinterpreting this my general assertion about people’s feeling about the job reports that I’m telegraphing I think still remains valid
- mrguyorama 2y ago
  "I've been demonstrably wrong in every single point but I'm still right because I feel like it" is such a good demonstration of what happened this election. Some people are hurting because there's always some people hurting, and for some reason that means we get the party that wants to reduce social safety nets?!

astrange 2y ago

That may be true of the monthly jobs report numbers (don't remember how they work), but if you need to know then it's not an issue because there's alternatives. Here's reports for all these that don't have those issues, as they just come from surveys. > It reports only those actively looking for a job or employed, so it leaves out people who simply aren’t participating in the labor market anymore because they can’t find one. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 This simply asks "do you have a job", and it's up to the people responding to decide if being an Uber driver is a job. > Average Americans feel the job market today is terrible and largely does not look at part time and near minimum wage work roles growing as a positive. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12032196 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12032196 - % of workers part time because they couldn't find anything better https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU0203127200A https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU0203127200A - % of workers at federal minimum wage https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620 - % people with multiple jobs All look healthy right now. (Obviously there's a lot more people at the state minimum wage.) > The jobs report doesn’t disaggregate higher paying jobs from lower ones That's in FRED somewhere, but https://realtimeinequality.org https://realtimeinequality.org is an easier way to view it. Btw, I think focusing on "jobs" isn't the best thing to look at - the poorest people in a country will always be children and the elderly, and hopefully we don't want them to get jobs.

no_wizard 2y ago
The jobs report is what most media parrots across all media platforms more or less is the monthly jobs report and definitely the one I’m referencing. No matter how you cut it though Americans do not feel they are getting their fair share economically and want to avenge that, which is why I think voters didn’t push back against tariffs - which have become a cornerstone of economic rhetoric by Trump and his allies - at the ballot box. I think it’s also because a good chunk of the electorate doesn’t quite understand how tariffs work and it’s going to backfire, but the sentiment is very clear
- astrange 2y ago
  Americans had what's called a vibecession where they universally thought the economy was bad, but then answered every question about their own finances by saying they were good. The implication was they thought it was bad for everyone else, just not them, so that's mostly on the media's negativity bias. There was some hangover effect from inflation, although of course that's going to get worse now.