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Prediction markets had this a fair few hours ago, which is interesting. https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1730711795961 https:
by aaron695 2y ago
Prediction markets had this a fair few hours ago, which is interesting.
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1730711795961 https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-20...
There was a blip with the sweep though which is also interesting - https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2024-election?tid=1730878231000 https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2024-election?...
- rapsey 2y agoAnd the pollsters were all so wrong. I guess we are in a new era of prediction markets.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago> the pollsters were all so wrong They were wrong by about 3 points nationally, which is a normal error.
- creato 2y agoThe prediction markets pretty closely tracked NYT's probability estimate, which seems like the best possible analysis of the available data (partial current results, complete past results, at the precinct level). Anything else would have been surprising.