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if you believe in the wisdom of crowds, they are prediction markets. If you discount the wisdom of crowds, they are pure gambling. I think they started being c
by fsckboy 2y ago
if you believe in the wisdom of crowds, they are prediction markets. If you discount the wisdom of crowds, they are pure gambling.
I think they started being called prediction markets around the idea a few years back that we should allow "gambling" on events to predict events: if you allow betting on the date of the next terror attack, the terrorists will not be able to restrain themselves from insider trading, and bingo, you know when there will be a terror attack. The idea was that it was such a good idea, the FBI/CIA would run these things. But the public hated the idea so it got squelched.
This is all from my memory, which I wouldn't bet on.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago> if you believe in the wisdom of crowds, they are prediction markets With capped bets and broad participation, you have a wisdom of crowds game. That’s not how Polymarket is designed.
- ajb 2y agoThere's the problem that betting on assassinations or terror attacks is a deniable way of funding them. Because the perpetrator is the one who knows to bet on the correct date. One guy was prosecuted for proposing this, if I recall correctly Oh yes, it was Jim Bell: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Bell https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Bell
- wakawaka28 2y agoTerrorists betting on their own attacks is not at all like voters betting on their own election. Wisdom of crowds is something I take with a grain of salt. But if there was ever a thing that crowds could predict, it is election results.