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If it was, than people like Buffet, Stan Druckenmiller or Jim Simmons wouldn't exist. They are trading and they are making bets. Simmons makes milions of them
by freefaler 2y ago
If it was, than people like Buffet, Stan Druckenmiller or Jim Simmons wouldn't exist.
They are trading and they are making bets. Simmons makes milions of them everyday :), Buffet makes 1 per month. But they are active stock traders not a passive index investors.
- selectodude 2y agoWell, not Jim Simons. He’s dead.
- freefaler 2y agoDoes that matter, he managed to be living for the last 30 years creating a consistently earning quant trading fund.
- krainboltgreene 2y agoThere are thousands of Buffets, Stans, and Jims that don't exist.
- freefaler 2y agoThe point is that you don't see a Buffet like figure earning consistently in random-bet casino games. If you see that there are some examples disproving the conjecture "Market is fully random and are not different than a casino roulette game". It may be uncommon, but not a fully random example.
- krainboltgreene 2y agoYou are skeptical of this idea because you expect to see more people like Buffet "making money by simply buying stocks" (I'm being reductive for the sake of writing, not arguing). The unspoken foundation for this assumption is that everyone is equally at the casino roulette game. That is not the case. The american wealth inequality is vast. You are seeing exactly the expected number of winners (few) given that the people at the table who can afford a majority of the loss are very few. Stock markets are a casino gamble and the few people like Buffet are actually proof of it being a gamble. Don't take my word for it: https://money.com/warren-buffett-stock-market-casino/#:~:text=These%20high%2Drisk%20investments%20can,and%20daily%20tempts%20the%20occupants.%E2%80%9D https://money.com/warren-buffett-stock-market-casino/#:~:tex...