If you have a coin and know for a fact that it is either a fair coin or a 60 40 coin, it would take ~100 flips to be 80% sure which kind of coin it is. We will

If you have a coin and know for a fact that it is either a fair coin or a 60 40 coin, it would take ~100 flips to be 80% sure which kind of coin it is. We will never know whether polymarket’s odds were more accurate than e. g. Nate Silver’s on predicting a single event