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Not only have Taiwan said that if Taiwan invades, "we're going to blow up TSMC", but sabotaging semiconductors is absolutely, utterly trivial to do by anyone in

Not only have Taiwan said that if Taiwan invades, "we're going to blow up TSMC", but sabotaging semiconductors is absolutely, utterly trivial to do by anyone in the dozens/hundreds of steps needed to produce the cutting-edge semiconductors that make the difference between TSMC and China's domestic fabs. You can wreck production yields by using the wrong color of paint in the break room or running a fan outside the building, no that is not an exaggeration. But, maybe there's some economic value in invading Taiwan. What's the economic cost, though? Well, besides the collapse of the semiconductor industry that China is quite reliant on. What else? Sanctions up the wazoo. Sanctions from the US, sanctions from Europe and from major US allies, sanctions from anyone in the South China Sea most likely. Taiwan doesn't have any natural resources, their knowledge workers can just leave (and the US will offer green cards and evacuation to everyone involved in the chips needed by the US army, if China tries to invade), their economy will plummet when imports drop from sanctions, and also China will be at war, and war is terrible for the economy.

simgt 2y ago
> China will be at war, and war is terrible for the economy If you're not looking only at poor metrics like the GDP or balance of trade, is it the case when it's not happening on your soil? As long as the natural resources are available, it seems like a good way to recenter the economy on what is actually important for survival.
maxglute 2y ago
>"we're going to blow up TSMC" No, only US writings have suggested TW should blow up their fabs, or threatened that US would. To which TW media has told US chuckle heads to knock it off because they're clearly not going to destroy their golden goose that can lay eggs for PRC or US. Economic value is also denying US who is even more disproportionately affected by removal of 90% of high end nodes, which are already largely denied to PRC. I wouldn't expect any TW knowledge workers to be able to leave, the runways are going to be cratered, the ports and coasts saturated with mines and overwatching drones. PRC going to make sure their only future is going to be tied to mainland prosperity. PRC trade to west bloc in general like 5% of GDP... it's not nothing but it's not substantial. If you told Xi he could renunify with TW in exchange for 5% of GDP, he would have loled and smashed that button yesterday. War is bad for the economy, but it could be even worse for your adversaries. Imagine if US enters fight and lost, entire geoeconomic order would shift. Entire economic order could also shift if US doesn't fight (i.e. abdicate certain 1IC security commitments).

simgt 2y ago

> China will be at war, and war is terrible for the economy If you're not looking only at poor metrics like the GDP or balance of trade, is it the case when it's not happening on your soil? As long as the natural resources are available, it seems like a good way to recenter the economy on what is actually important for survival.

maxglute 2y ago

>"we're going to blow up TSMC" No, only US writings have suggested TW should blow up their fabs, or threatened that US would. To which TW media has told US chuckle heads to knock it off because they're clearly not going to destroy their golden goose that can lay eggs for PRC or US. Economic value is also denying US who is even more disproportionately affected by removal of 90% of high end nodes, which are already largely denied to PRC. I wouldn't expect any TW knowledge workers to be able to leave, the runways are going to be cratered, the ports and coasts saturated with mines and overwatching drones. PRC going to make sure their only future is going to be tied to mainland prosperity. PRC trade to west bloc in general like 5% of GDP... it's not nothing but it's not substantial. If you told Xi he could renunify with TW in exchange for 5% of GDP, he would have loled and smashed that button yesterday. War is bad for the economy, but it could be even worse for your adversaries. Imagine if US enters fight and lost, entire geoeconomic order would shift. Entire economic order could also shift if US doesn't fight (i.e. abdicate certain 1IC security commitments).