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In the event of a invasion TMSC in Taiwan will cease to function. "TMSC and its Dutch chip machine supplier ASML have made joint plans to remotely disable the

by clwg 2y ago

In the event of a invasion TMSC in Taiwan will cease to function. "TMSC and its Dutch chip machine supplier ASML have made joint plans to remotely disable the machines in the event of an invasion." https://9to5mac.com/2024/05/21/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-tsmc/ https://9to5mac.com/2024/05/21/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-ts...

akira2501 2y ago
They'll be disassembled and studied.
- godelski 2y ago
  They could get fully operating machines and that's not enough to make them the global chip leader overnight, or even in a decade. Analogously, the reason AMD is trailing Nvidia isn't just about hardware... There's many factors at play and this is true for TSMC as well
  - akira2501 2y ago
    There are people who are worried about the economic market. Others are worried about the military impact. Them being a "global chip leader" isn't the problem.
    - godelski 2y ago
      The latter related to what I wrote. But yes chip global chip production would be severely damaged. This includes for china itself. It’s like shooting yourself in the foot to cut off your enemies toe. The military impact is more complicated. It’s worth noting that like most industries the military relies upon computers and its a pretty bad if they are being created by your adversaries instead of allies.
godelski 2y ago
People seem to not realize that (just like them) Taiwan knows that China wants TSMC. Even if there wasn't a way to turn the machines off remotely in an invasion, do people not recognize that Taiwan will gladly make China blow up the facility, or do it themselves. The US said they'll do it if Taiwan won't. (Though this may change tomorrow [0]) But it's not just the facility that's important, it's the people. It's not like you can walk in and press a button and start making chips (not to mention the whole supply chain for the materials necessary for manufacturing). It's not a turkey operator... If China somehow captured the facility without severe damage, do you really believe those engineers are just going to do the work? Or rather, do it to their best abilities? Typically people are not very happy when their country has been annexed. It's very easy to slow down production, to introduce error, and it doesn't take very many people resisting to shut down the whole operation, especially if many people are willing to at least "look the other way". All the while the US and others will happily the providing support and be trying to extract those engineers and they're families. (And other countries aren't going to be providing materials so China needs to jump an even bigger gap) Taiwan knows their silicon shield. It exists by design. And it's resistant to more than an invasion. The chance of a China invasion leading to Chinese chip dominance within a decade after the invasion is near 0. It would only weaken the works supply, so it's just China shooting itself in the foot (maybe both and maybe an arm too). It'd be insane to hurt yourself more in an effort to hurt your enemy even a decent amount. Though it's still not out of the question. [0] https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-shares-fall-more-than-2-after-trump-says-taiwan-should-pay-defence-2024-07-17/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-shares-fall-more-tha...
- maxglute 2y ago
  Underpaid TW semi talent, now banned from working in PRC, was happily working for PRC interests for 3x-4x pay. Most has their price. During war time, it's not just going to be money, it's going to be calories, it's going to be safety. Reality is, as with all war, collaborators will be richly rewarded, sabeteurs will be shot. US won't be able to extract much engineers - PRC A2D2 is going to prevent subtantial exfiltration, certainly not on level of 100,000s of talent. I would wager US+co won't even be able to extract their own nationals out. There's still a lot of sole source semi supply chains on TW... if world wants global semi to keep churning they're going to have work with PRC for access. TSMC fabs in US likely on a timer the second island becomes inaccessible. Unless there's replacement/substitute, which so far PRC is the only country trying to replicate entire supply chain - meaning if anything they'll be least affected. Realistically most PRC hopes is to extract some EUV machinery (even if damaged) for reverse engineering. Ultimately taking TSMC supply offline hurts US/west more, since leading edge disproportionately denied to PRC already - with TSMC projected to dominate 90%+ of advanced nodes for 5/10+ years, PRC is losing a finger, west is losing the hands and feet.
  - godelski 2y ago
    I think you misunderstand, you don't need 90% of workers to act against a factory to sabotage or shut it down. You need one to do significant damage. Not percent, one employee. If you think about where you work, I'm sure you can quickly figure out how you could cause significant harm to it. I'm sure if you think for a bit you could figure out how to do more and maybe how to avoid getting caught or at least caught quickly. > Reality is, as with all war, collaborators will be richly rewarded, sabeteurs will be shot. Not correct at all. Collaborators do not typically become richly rewarded. There are examples, but there is not a single instance of an occupied country where that country's people all got rich corroborating. Nor even high rates of collaboration. Thing is, people aren't very different from you or I. If another country performed a hostile takeover of your country, do you think you'd happily collaborate? Maybe you would. Would you do so without reservation? Do you think your decision will be common? Have you considered that this is a hostile takeover and there's a very good chance that at least one of your friends or family members has been killed. There's an old saying that was popular during the initial invasion of Iraq: How do you create a terrorist? You kill his brother. In case you missed the context, it is a critique on the invasion itself and how the actions being taken were creating more adversaries. Yes, people caught will be shot. But this creates two types of people, not one. Those that are afraid and reluctantly comply and people who are afraid and are catalyzed to fight back. Don't believe me? Look at the history of literally any occupation effort. Hanging onto occupied territories is very difficult. Take Ukraine as an example if you want to understand things from a real life evolving situation. There is still resistance in Donetsk, resistance in Luhansk. Hell, resistance has not stopped in Crimea, a decade after occupation. If you think the Taiwanese will just roll over and comply, then I think you are being naive. I think you haven't even though of what the impact of losing a loved one will do to you. > PRC is losing a finger, west is losing the hands and feet. Again, these are not turnkey operations. I'd also suggest you attempt reverse engineering something before making such strong claims. I'll even make the bar low: just reverse engineer hardware. If you can do that, you're 20% of the way to success! (even adding the software won't get you to 90%). China is losing a lot more than a few fingers, and taking Taiwan doesn't get them Samsung. The Koreans aren't big allies of China (btw, they still hold a grudge with Japan more than 70 years later). It doesn't get them Intel. It doesn't get them Broadcom, Qualcomm, Hynix, ASML, or even AMAT. HiS isn't even close to Samsung. Yes, global chip production will fall and be hit hard. But remember which country buys 54% of chips... > Unless there's replacement/substitute, which so far PRC is the only country trying to replicate entire supply chain https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC#Arizona https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC#Arizona
pramaanik 2y ago
In 2022 TSMC Chairman Mark Liu appeared in a rare interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakariya.In the interview, Liu categorically says that if China were to take over Taiwan, it would find TSMC’s facilities unusable because their secret ingredient is human capital and real-time international collaboration with companies for materials, software, hardware, and know-how. Part 1: https://edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2022/07/31/exp-731-taiwan-tech-mark-liu-tsmc.cnn https://edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2022/07/31/exp-731-taiwan-... Part 2: https://edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2022/07/31/exp-gps-0731-mark-liu-taiwan-semiconductors.cnn https://edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2022/07/31/exp-gps-0731-ma...

by clwg 2y ago

akira2501 2y ago

They'll be disassembled and studied.

godelski 2y ago
They could get fully operating machines and that's not enough to make them the global chip leader overnight, or even in a decade. Analogously, the reason AMD is trailing Nvidia isn't just about hardware... There's many factors at play and this is true for TSMC as well
- akira2501 2y ago
  There are people who are worried about the economic market. Others are worried about the military impact. Them being a "global chip leader" isn't the problem.
  - godelski 2y ago
    The latter related to what I wrote. But yes chip global chip production would be severely damaged. This includes for china itself. It’s like shooting yourself in the foot to cut off your enemies toe. The military impact is more complicated. It’s worth noting that like most industries the military relies upon computers and its a pretty bad if they are being created by your adversaries instead of allies.

godelski 2y ago

People seem to not realize that (just like them) Taiwan knows that China wants TSMC. Even if there wasn't a way to turn the machines off remotely in an invasion, do people not recognize that Taiwan will gladly make China blow up the facility, or do it themselves. The US said they'll do it if Taiwan won't. (Though this may change tomorrow [0]) But it's not just the facility that's important, it's the people. It's not like you can walk in and press a button and start making chips (not to mention the whole supply chain for the materials necessary for manufacturing). It's not a turkey operator... If China somehow captured the facility without severe damage, do you really believe those engineers are just going to do the work? Or rather, do it to their best abilities? Typically people are not very happy when their country has been annexed. It's very easy to slow down production, to introduce error, and it doesn't take very many people resisting to shut down the whole operation, especially if many people are willing to at least "look the other way". All the while the US and others will happily the providing support and be trying to extract those engineers and they're families. (And other countries aren't going to be providing materials so China needs to jump an even bigger gap) Taiwan knows their silicon shield. It exists by design. And it's resistant to more than an invasion. The chance of a China invasion leading to Chinese chip dominance within a decade after the invasion is near 0. It would only weaken the works supply, so it's just China shooting itself in the foot (maybe both and maybe an arm too). It'd be insane to hurt yourself more in an effort to hurt your enemy even a decent amount. Though it's still not out of the question. [0] https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-shares-fall-more-than-2-after-trump-says-taiwan-should-pay-defence-2024-07-17/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-shares-fall-more-tha...

maxglute 2y ago
Underpaid TW semi talent, now banned from working in PRC, was happily working for PRC interests for 3x-4x pay. Most has their price. During war time, it's not just going to be money, it's going to be calories, it's going to be safety. Reality is, as with all war, collaborators will be richly rewarded, sabeteurs will be shot. US won't be able to extract much engineers - PRC A2D2 is going to prevent subtantial exfiltration, certainly not on level of 100,000s of talent. I would wager US+co won't even be able to extract their own nationals out. There's still a lot of sole source semi supply chains on TW... if world wants global semi to keep churning they're going to have work with PRC for access. TSMC fabs in US likely on a timer the second island becomes inaccessible. Unless there's replacement/substitute, which so far PRC is the only country trying to replicate entire supply chain - meaning if anything they'll be least affected. Realistically most PRC hopes is to extract some EUV machinery (even if damaged) for reverse engineering. Ultimately taking TSMC supply offline hurts US/west more, since leading edge disproportionately denied to PRC already - with TSMC projected to dominate 90%+ of advanced nodes for 5/10+ years, PRC is losing a finger, west is losing the hands and feet.
- godelski 2y ago
  I think you misunderstand, you don't need 90% of workers to act against a factory to sabotage or shut it down. You need one to do significant damage. Not percent, one employee. If you think about where you work, I'm sure you can quickly figure out how you could cause significant harm to it. I'm sure if you think for a bit you could figure out how to do more and maybe how to avoid getting caught or at least caught quickly. > Reality is, as with all war, collaborators will be richly rewarded, sabeteurs will be shot. Not correct at all. Collaborators do not typically become richly rewarded. There are examples, but there is not a single instance of an occupied country where that country's people all got rich corroborating. Nor even high rates of collaboration. Thing is, people aren't very different from you or I. If another country performed a hostile takeover of your country, do you think you'd happily collaborate? Maybe you would. Would you do so without reservation? Do you think your decision will be common? Have you considered that this is a hostile takeover and there's a very good chance that at least one of your friends or family members has been killed. There's an old saying that was popular during the initial invasion of Iraq: How do you create a terrorist? You kill his brother. In case you missed the context, it is a critique on the invasion itself and how the actions being taken were creating more adversaries. Yes, people caught will be shot. But this creates two types of people, not one. Those that are afraid and reluctantly comply and people who are afraid and are catalyzed to fight back. Don't believe me? Look at the history of literally any occupation effort. Hanging onto occupied territories is very difficult. Take Ukraine as an example if you want to understand things from a real life evolving situation. There is still resistance in Donetsk, resistance in Luhansk. Hell, resistance has not stopped in Crimea, a decade after occupation. If you think the Taiwanese will just roll over and comply, then I think you are being naive. I think you haven't even though of what the impact of losing a loved one will do to you. > PRC is losing a finger, west is losing the hands and feet. Again, these are not turnkey operations. I'd also suggest you attempt reverse engineering something before making such strong claims. I'll even make the bar low: just reverse engineer hardware. If you can do that, you're 20% of the way to success! (even adding the software won't get you to 90%). China is losing a lot more than a few fingers, and taking Taiwan doesn't get them Samsung. The Koreans aren't big allies of China (btw, they still hold a grudge with Japan more than 70 years later). It doesn't get them Intel. It doesn't get them Broadcom, Qualcomm, Hynix, ASML, or even AMAT. HiS isn't even close to Samsung. Yes, global chip production will fall and be hit hard. But remember which country buys 54% of chips... > Unless there's replacement/substitute, which so far PRC is the only country trying to replicate entire supply chain https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC#Arizona https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC#Arizona

pramaanik 2y ago

In 2022 TSMC Chairman Mark Liu appeared in a rare interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakariya.In the interview, Liu categorically says that if China were to take over Taiwan, it would find TSMC’s facilities unusable because their secret ingredient is human capital and real-time international collaboration with companies for materials, software, hardware, and know-how. Part 1: https://edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2022/07/31/exp-731-taiwan-tech-mark-liu-tsmc.cnn https://edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2022/07/31/exp-731-taiwan-... Part 2: https://edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2022/07/31/exp-gps-0731-mark-liu-taiwan-semiconductors.cnn https://edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2022/07/31/exp-gps-0731-ma...