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Ill ignore the stuff before the last question as it doesn't all seem in good faith. E.g. saying "it is an observation, not an argument" about a provocative stat

Ill ignore the stuff before the last question as it doesn't all seem in good faith. E.g. saying "it is an observation, not an argument" about a provocative statement containing the words "you'd be wrong". For other things you said it wont be interesting to dive into them on a HN thread. That is more about this medium than the points you made per se. To answer the last question. First principles. Exponential growth tails off when resources limits are met. At best Bitcoin takes over all currency usage and the value of it (at some point $ comparisons become useless as it has become more used than dollars) follows human progress i.e. the things we do to trade for bitcoin. There is no reason to believe that the growth rate of all human civ will be as high ad bitcoins break out from Satoshi. And if it is, it has nothing to do with Bitcoin and everything to do with AI. However the future is uncertain enough that we can't pretend this curve is a predictor. Now my back foot is hurting so lets turn this around. What are the underlying principles and systems that make your curve predictive?

scotty79 2y ago
I'm not sure why do you think any of what I wrote was provocative. Do you not agree that if you'd predict (or imply) immediate catastrophy for Bitcoin at any point in the past you'd be wrong every time you did that? Isn't it just a factual observation of reality (even trivial one) that you also agree with? Or did you observe something different? I just stated something. I did not propose argument for anything. I didn't even tell you that you are wrong, only that you'd be wrong if you said it at any moment in the past. I don't find it even mildly provocative. You might still be right right now. It's just very unlikely in my option. > Exponential growth tails off when resources limits are met. Do you believe that Bitcoin grows exponentially when I just told you it fits logarithmic curve not straight line on logarithmic plot? Are you sure you are basing your reasoning on relevant first principles? > What are the underlying principles and systems that make your curve predictive? Statistics. Large number of uncoordinated trades so far and large number of capital exchanging hands in various ways, places and contexts makes it unwise to dismiss it as purely accidental and prone to flipping on its head any moment. Global "once in a century" pandemic didn't affect it. Neither associated disruption to global trade nor partial transition to remote work. No political changes. Nuclear power instigating war in Europe didn't affect it. Raise of AI didn't affect it. Evolution and degradation of global economy didn't affect it. Brexit. Trump's win. Trump's loss. Loss denial. And if we are looking at events "closer to home". Countless bankruptcies of crypto exchanges didn't affect the fit. Billion dollars scams in crypto coming out didn't affect it. Bans on mining in leading countries. Forking of BCH, BCC and Bitcoin gold. Invention of stable coins (also NFTs) is not visible on the fit. I'm sorry, but all that makes it super hard to believe that suddenly it's gonna deviate from the fit when it stayed pretty much on track while all other real world and crypto charts were going bonkers due to real world events and trends and whims of the markets.

scotty79 2y ago

I'm not sure why do you think any of what I wrote was provocative. Do you not agree that if you'd predict (or imply) immediate catastrophy for Bitcoin at any point in the past you'd be wrong every time you did that? Isn't it just a factual observation of reality (even trivial one) that you also agree with? Or did you observe something different? I just stated something. I did not propose argument for anything. I didn't even tell you that you are wrong, only that you'd be wrong if you said it at any moment in the past. I don't find it even mildly provocative. You might still be right right now. It's just very unlikely in my option. > Exponential growth tails off when resources limits are met. Do you believe that Bitcoin grows exponentially when I just told you it fits logarithmic curve not straight line on logarithmic plot? Are you sure you are basing your reasoning on relevant first principles? > What are the underlying principles and systems that make your curve predictive? Statistics. Large number of uncoordinated trades so far and large number of capital exchanging hands in various ways, places and contexts makes it unwise to dismiss it as purely accidental and prone to flipping on its head any moment. Global "once in a century" pandemic didn't affect it. Neither associated disruption to global trade nor partial transition to remote work. No political changes. Nuclear power instigating war in Europe didn't affect it. Raise of AI didn't affect it. Evolution and degradation of global economy didn't affect it. Brexit. Trump's win. Trump's loss. Loss denial. And if we are looking at events "closer to home". Countless bankruptcies of crypto exchanges didn't affect the fit. Billion dollars scams in crypto coming out didn't affect it. Bans on mining in leading countries. Forking of BCH, BCC and Bitcoin gold. Invention of stable coins (also NFTs) is not visible on the fit. I'm sorry, but all that makes it super hard to believe that suddenly it's gonna deviate from the fit when it stayed pretty much on track while all other real world and crypto charts were going bonkers due to real world events and trends and whims of the markets.